Statistics / Football / Romania. Liga II / Slatina vs Viitorul Şelimbăr

Slatina vs Viitorul Şelimbăr Statistics & Analysis

Slatina Slatina
Sep 19, 2026 - 08:00
2 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 82%
Viitorul Şelimbăr Viitorul Şelimbăr
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Slatina Slatina ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8654449

Closing Odds 1.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Slatina win · Slatina 2–1 Viitorul Şelimbăr
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.97 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Viitorul Şelimbăr (1X2) by about 17.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Slatina (1X2) 41.4 68.6 -27.2
Draw (1X2) 29.4 19.5 +9.8
Viitorul Şelimbăr (1X2) 29.3 11.9 +17.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.9 -6.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.1 +6.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Viitorul Şelimbăr (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.9%. The difference — about 17.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Slatina (1X2) 1.34 1.34 +0.9
Draw (1X2) 4.64 4.71 -0.0
Viitorul Şelimbăr (1X2) 7.08 7.72 -0.9
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.71 -3.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.21 2.08 +3.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga II
  • Fixture: Slatina vs Viitorul Şelimbăr
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Slatina 1.43 — Viitorul Şelimbăr 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga II Liga II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slatina 8 7 1 0 22
2 FC Politehnica Timisoara 8 6 2 0 20
3 CSM Reşiţa 8 6 0 2 18
4 FC Bacau 8 4 3 1 15
5 Chindia Targoviste 8 5 0 3 15
6 Popești-Leordeni 8 4 3 1 15
7 Concordia 8 5 0 3 15
8 Metalul Buzău 8 4 2 2 14
9 CS Afumati 8 4 2 2 14
10 Cetatea Suceava 8 3 3 2 12
11 Gloria Bistriţa 8 4 0 4 12
12 Metaloglobus 8 3 2 3 11
13 ASA Targu Mures 8 3 2 3 11
14 CSM Ramnicu Valcea 8 3 2 3 11
15 Bihor Oradea 8 2 3 3 9
16 Viitorul Şelimbăr 8 1 3 4 6
17 Ştefăneşti 8 2 0 6 6
18 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 8 1 2 5 5
19 Unirea Slobozia 8 1 1 6 4
20 CSM Satu Mare 8 0 4 4 4
21 Dumbrăviţa 8 0 3 5 3
22 CS Dinamo București 8 1 0 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Bacau 8 19 8 +11 15
2 Popești-Leordeni 8 19 14 +5 15
3 FC Politehnica Timisoara 8 18 7 +11 20
4 Slatina 8 17 5 +12 22
5 Chindia Targoviste 8 17 8 +9 15
6 Concordia 8 17 13 +4 15
7 Cetatea Suceava 8 15 11 +4 12
8 CSM Reşiţa 8 13 8 +5 18
9 Bihor Oradea 8 13 10 +3 9
10 Gloria Bistriţa 8 12 10 +2 12
11 CS Afumati 8 12 12 0 14
12 ASA Targu Mures 8 12 15 -3 11
13 Metaloglobus 8 11 12 -1 11
14 Unirea Slobozia 8 11 12 -1 4
15 CSM Ramnicu Valcea 8 10 13 -3 11
16 Metalul Buzău 8 9 7 +2 14
17 CSA Steaua Bucureşti 8 9 17 -8 5
18 CS Dinamo București 8 9 27 -18 3
19 Viitorul Şelimbăr 8 7 14 -7 6
20 Ştefăneşti 8 6 15 -9 6
21 Dumbrăviţa 8 5 16 -11 3
22 CSM Satu Mare 8 3 10 -7 4