Gloria Bistriţa vs Popești-Leordeni Statistics & Analysis

Gloria Bistriţa

Sep 12, 2026 - 08:00

2 1.38

3 1.22

xG Accuracy: 52%

Popești-Leordeni

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Gloria Bistriţa Popești-Leordeni ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7417521

Closing Odds 1.77

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Popești-Leordeni win · Gloria Bistriţa 2–3 Popești-Leordeni

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Popești-Leordeni (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Popești-Leordeni (1X2) by about 9.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Gloria Bistriţa (1X2)	39.0	51.1	-12.1
Draw (1X2)	29.5	26.8	+2.7
Popești-Leordeni (1X2)	31.5	22.1	+9.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	47.6	+0.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	52.4	-0.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Popești-Leordeni (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.1%. The difference — about 9.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Gloria Bistriţa (1X2)	1.77	1.77
Draw (1X2)	3.37	3.37
Popești-Leordeni (1X2)	4.1	4.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.97	1.97
Under 2.5 goals	1.79	1.79

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga II
Fixture: Gloria Bistriţa vs Popești-Leordeni
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Gloria Bistriţa 1.38 — Popești-Leordeni 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Liga II — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Slatina	8	7	1	0	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	8	6	2	0	20
3	CSM Reşiţa	8	6	0	2	18
4	FC Bacau	8	4	3	1	15
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	5	0	3	15
6	Popești-Leordeni	8	4	3	1	15
7	Concordia	8	5	0	3	15
8	Metalul Buzău	8	4	2	2	14
9	CS Afumati	8	4	2	2	14
10	Cetatea Suceava	8	3	3	2	12
11	Gloria Bistriţa	8	4	0	4	12
12	Metaloglobus	8	3	2	3	11
13	ASA Targu Mures	8	3	2	3	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	3	2	3	11
15	Bihor Oradea	8	2	3	3	9
16	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	1	3	4	6
17	Ştefăneşti	8	2	0	6	6
18	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	8	1	2	5	5
19	Unirea Slobozia	8	1	1	6	4
20	CSM Satu Mare	8	0	4	4	4
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	0	3	5	3
22	CS Dinamo București	8	1	0	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Bacau	8	19	8	+11	15
2	Popești-Leordeni	8	19	14	+5	15
3	FC Politehnica Timisoara	8	18	7	+11	20
4	Slatina	8	17	5	+12	22
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	17	8	+9	15
6	Concordia	8	17	13	+4	15
7	Cetatea Suceava	8	15	11	+4	12
8	CSM Reşiţa	8	13	8	+5	18
9	Bihor Oradea	8	13	10	+3	9
10	Gloria Bistriţa	8	12	10	+2	12
11	CS Afumati	8	12	12	0	14
12	ASA Targu Mures	8	12	15	-3	11
13	Metaloglobus	8	11	12	-1	11
14	Unirea Slobozia	8	11	12	-1	4
15	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	10	13	-3	11
16	Metalul Buzău	8	9	7	+2	14
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	8	9	17	-8	5
18	CS Dinamo București	8	9	27	-18	3
19	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	7	14	-7	6
20	Ştefăneşti	8	6	15	-9	6
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	5	16	-11	3
22	CSM Satu Mare	8	3	10	-7	4