Bibiani Gold Stars vs Hearts of Oak Statistics & Analysis

Bibiani Gold Stars

Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.23

2 1.37

xG Accuracy: 79%

Hearts of Oak

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hearts of Oak Hearts of Oak ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7459659

Closing Odds 3.11

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Hearts of Oak win · Bibiani Gold Stars 1–2 Hearts of Oak

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hearts of Oak (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 13.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bibiani Gold Stars (1X2)	31.9	38.5	-6.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	32.9	-3.3
Hearts of Oak (1X2)	38.5	28.6	+9.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	34.6	+13.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	65.3	-13.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.6%. The difference — about 13.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Bibiani Gold Stars (1X2)	2.31	2.31
Draw (1X2)	2.7	2.7
Hearts of Oak (1X2)	3.11	3.11
Over 2.5 goals	2.64	2.64
Under 2.5 goals	1.4	1.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Bibiani Gold Stars vs Hearts of Oak
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): Bibiani Gold Stars 1.23 — Hearts of Oak 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +28.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Samartex	4	2	2	0	8
2	Hearts of Oak	4	2	1	1	7
3	Port City	3	2	1	0	7
4	Ashanti Gold	4	2	1	1	7
5	Aduana Stars	4	2	1	1	7
6	Bechem United	4	2	1	1	7
7	Karela	4	2	0	2	6
8	Basake Holy Stars	4	2	0	2	6
9	Medeama	3	1	2	0	5
10	Vision	4	1	2	1	5
11	Heart of Lions	4	1	2	1	5
12	Swedru All Blacks	4	1	2	1	5
13	Asante Kotoko	4	1	2	1	5
14	Debibi United	4	1	1	2	4
15	Berekum Chelsea	4	1	1	2	4
16	Bibiani Gold Stars	4	1	0	3	3
17	Young Apostles	4	1	0	3	3
18	Dreams	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Medeama	3	7	4	+3	5
2	Hearts of Oak	4	6	2	+4	7
3	Samartex	4	6	3	+3	8
4	Ashanti Gold	4	6	4	+2	7
5	Vision	4	6	5	+1	5
6	Debibi United	4	6	5	+1	4
7	Karela	4	6	6	0	6
8	Port City	3	5	2	+3	7
9	Asante Kotoko	4	5	6	-1	5
10	Berekum Chelsea	4	5	8	-3	4
11	Dreams	4	5	9	-4	1
12	Aduana Stars	4	4	2	+2	7
13	Bibiani Gold Stars	4	4	7	-3	3
14	Bechem United	4	3	3	0	7
15	Heart of Lions	4	3	3	0	5
16	Basake Holy Stars	4	3	5	-2	6
17	Swedru All Blacks	4	2	2	0	5
18	Young Apostles	4	2	8	-6	3