Statistics / Football / Ghana. Premier League / Asante Kotoko vs Heart of Lions

Asante Kotoko vs Heart of Lions Statistics & Analysis

Asante Kotoko Asante Kotoko
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 75%
Heart of Lions Heart of Lions
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Heart of Lions Asante Kotoko ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7459531

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Asante Kotoko win · Asante Kotoko 2–1 Heart of Lions
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Heart of Lions (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Heart of Lions (1X2) by about 16.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Asante Kotoko (1X2) 33.8 50.1 -16.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.5 +0.2
Heart of Lions (1X2) 36.6 20.4 +16.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 34.6 +13.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 65.3 -13.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Heart of Lions (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.4%. The difference — about 16.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Asante Kotoko (1X2) 1.77 1.77 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Heart of Lions (1X2) 4.36 4.36 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.64 2.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Asante Kotoko vs Heart of Lions
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Asante Kotoko 1.27 — Heart of Lions 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +17.1 pts · Est. EV: +33.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Samartex 4 2 2 0 8
2 Hearts of Oak 4 2 1 1 7
3 Port City 3 2 1 0 7
4 Ashanti Gold 4 2 1 1 7
5 Aduana Stars 4 2 1 1 7
6 Bechem United 4 2 1 1 7
7 Karela 4 2 0 2 6
8 Basake Holy Stars 4 2 0 2 6
9 Medeama 3 1 2 0 5
10 Vision 4 1 2 1 5
11 Heart of Lions 4 1 2 1 5
12 Swedru All Blacks 4 1 2 1 5
13 Asante Kotoko 4 1 2 1 5
14 Debibi United 4 1 1 2 4
15 Berekum Chelsea 4 1 1 2 4
16 Bibiani Gold Stars 4 1 0 3 3
17 Young Apostles 4 1 0 3 3
18 Dreams 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Medeama 3 7 4 +3 5
2 Hearts of Oak 4 6 2 +4 7
3 Samartex 4 6 3 +3 8
4 Ashanti Gold 4 6 4 +2 7
5 Vision 4 6 5 +1 5
6 Debibi United 4 6 5 +1 4
7 Karela 4 6 6 0 6
8 Port City 3 5 2 +3 7
9 Asante Kotoko 4 5 6 -1 5
10 Berekum Chelsea 4 5 8 -3 4
11 Dreams 4 5 9 -4 1
12 Aduana Stars 4 4 2 +2 7
13 Bibiani Gold Stars 4 4 7 -3 3
14 Bechem United 4 3 3 0 7
15 Heart of Lions 4 3 3 0 5
16 Basake Holy Stars 4 3 5 -2 6
17 Swedru All Blacks 4 2 2 0 5
18 Young Apostles 4 2 8 -6 3
Premier League Ghana. Premier League Predictions