Statistics / Football / Brazil. Brasiliense B / Candango vs Canaa EC

Candango vs Canaa EC Statistics & Analysis

Candango Candango
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.12
4 1.48
xG Accuracy: 37%
⚽
Canaa EC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Canaa EC Canaa EC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11234255

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Canaa EC win · Candango 0–4 Canaa EC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Brasiliense B
  • Fixture: Candango vs Canaa EC
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
  • xG (showing): Candango 1.12 — Canaa EC 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasiliense B Brasiliense B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Taguatinga EC 5 4 0 1 12
2 Canaa EC 5 3 1 1 10
3 Planaltina DF 5 2 1 2 7
4 GREVAL 5 1 3 1 6
5 Legião 4 1 3 0 6
6 Luziânia 5 1 1 3 4
7 Candango 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 GREVAL 5 11 7 +4 6
2 Taguatinga EC 5 9 1 +8 12
3 Canaa EC 5 8 3 +5 10
4 Legião 4 6 4 +2 6
5 Planaltina DF 5 5 4 +1 7
6 Luziânia 5 3 11 -8 4
7 Candango 5 1 13 -12 1