Luziânia vs GREVAL Statistics & Analysis

Luziânia

Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.46

6 1.14

xG Accuracy: 18%

GREVAL

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Luziânia GREVAL ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8708040

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result GREVAL win · Luziânia 0–6 GREVAL

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Brasiliense B
Fixture: Luziânia vs GREVAL
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
xG (showing): Luziânia 1.46 — GREVAL 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasiliense B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Taguatinga EC	3	3	0	0	9
2	GREVAL	4	1	2	1	5
3	Legião	3	1	2	0	5
4	Planaltina DF	4	1	1	2	4
5	Canaa EC	3	1	1	1	4
6	Luziânia	3	1	1	1	4
7	Candango	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	GREVAL	4	8	4	+4	5
2	Taguatinga EC	3	7	0	+7	9
3	Planaltina DF	4	4	4	0	4
4	Legião	3	3	1	+2	5
5	Canaa EC	3	2	2	0	4
6	Luziânia	3	2	7	-5	4
7	Candango	4	1	9	-8	1