Candango vs Legião Statistics & Analysis

Candango

Sep 19, 2026 - 18:30

0 1.06

2 1.54

xG Accuracy: 66%

Legião

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Legião Legião ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8707983

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Legião win · Candango 0–2 Legião

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Brasiliense B
Fixture: Candango vs Legião
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.8%
xG (showing): Candango 1.06 — Legião 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasiliense B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Taguatinga EC	3	3	0	0	9
2	GREVAL	4	1	2	1	5
3	Legião	3	1	2	0	5
4	Planaltina DF	4	1	1	2	4
5	Canaa EC	3	1	1	1	4
6	Luziânia	3	1	1	1	4
7	Candango	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	GREVAL	4	8	4	+4	5
2	Taguatinga EC	3	7	0	+7	9
3	Planaltina DF	4	4	4	0	4
4	Legião	3	3	1	+2	5
5	Canaa EC	3	2	2	0	4
6	Luziânia	3	2	7	-5	4
7	Candango	4	1	9	-8	1