Mil-Muğan vs Qarabag Statistics & Analysis

Mil-Muğan

Oct 11, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.05

2 1.55

xG Accuracy: 66%

Qarabag

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Qarabag Qarabag ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13200204

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Qarabag win · Mil-Muğan 0–2 Qarabag

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premyer Liqa
Fixture: Mil-Muğan vs Qarabag
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 24.1% · Draw 28.5% · Away 47.3%
xG (showing): Mil-Muğan 1.05 — Qarabag 1.55 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premyer Liqa — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	6	5	0	1	15
2	Sabah FA	5	5	0	0	15
3	Qarabag	5	4	1	0	13
4	Turan	6	3	2	1	11
5	Zira	6	3	1	2	10
6	Keshla FC	6	2	3	1	9
7	Kapaz	5	2	1	2	7
8	Qabala	6	1	1	4	4
9	Mil-Muğan	6	1	1	4	4
10	Safa Baku	6	1	0	5	3
11	Sumqayıt	5	0	2	3	2
12	Araz	6	0	2	4	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	6	18	5	+13	15
2	Sabah FA	5	14	1	+13	15
3	Qarabag	5	9	4	+5	13
4	Keshla FC	6	8	6	+2	9
5	Zira	6	7	8	-1	10
6	Turan	6	6	4	+2	11
7	Mil-Muğan	6	6	11	-5	4
8	Araz	6	5	13	-8	2
9	Kapaz	5	4	7	-3	7
10	Sumqayıt	5	4	8	-4	2
11	Qabala	6	2	7	-5	4
12	Safa Baku	6	2	11	-9	3