Statistics / Football / Azerbaijan. Premyer Liqa / Turan vs Zira

Turan vs Zira Statistics & Analysis

Turan Turan
Sep 19, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Zira Zira
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Turan Turan ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8678441

Closing Odds 3.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Turan win · Turan 1–0 Zira
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Zira (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Turan (1X2) 36.1 37.9 -1.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 34.0 -4.4
Zira (1X2) 34.2 28.1 +6.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 36.6 +11.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 63.4 -11.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.6%. The difference — about 11.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Turan (1X2) 2.42 2.42 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.69 2.69 0.0
Zira (1X2) 3.26 3.26 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.55 2.55 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.47 1.47 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premyer Liqa
  • Fixture: Turan vs Zira
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Turan 1.32 — Zira 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Turan & Zira!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Premyer Liqa Premyer Liqa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi Baku 6 5 0 1 15
2 Sabah FA 5 5 0 0 15
3 Qarabag 5 4 1 0 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 11
5 Zira 6 3 1 2 10
6 Keshla FC 6 2 3 1 9
7 Kapaz 5 2 1 2 7
8 Qabala 6 1 1 4 4
9 Mil-Muğan 6 1 1 4 4
10 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 3
11 Sumqayıt 5 0 2 3 2
12 Araz 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi Baku 6 18 5 +13 15
2 Sabah FA 5 14 1 +13 15
3 Qarabag 5 9 4 +5 13
4 Keshla FC 6 8 6 +2 9
5 Zira 6 7 8 -1 10
6 Turan 6 6 4 +2 11
7 Mil-Muğan 6 6 11 -5 4
8 Araz 6 5 13 -8 2
9 Kapaz 5 4 7 -3 7
10 Sumqayıt 5 4 8 -4 2
11 Qabala 6 2 7 -5 4
12 Safa Baku 6 2 11 -9 3