Statistics / Football / Azerbaijan. Premyer Liqa / Sabah FA vs Mil-Muğan

Sabah FA vs Mil-Muğan Statistics & Analysis

Sabah FA Sabah FA
Sep 19, 2026 - 15:45
3 1.59
1 1.01
xG Accuracy: 68%
Mil-Muğan Mil-Muğan
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sabah FA Sabah FA ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8701055

Closing Odds 1.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sabah FA win · Sabah FA 3–1 Mil-Muğan
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Mil-Muğan (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sabah FA (1X2) 49.3 83.3 -34.1
Draw (1X2) 28.2 11.4 +16.8
Mil-Muğan (1X2) 22.5 5.3 +17.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.8 -17.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.1 +17.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.1%. The difference — about 17.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sabah FA (1X2) 1.1 1.1 0.0
Draw (1X2) 8.05 8.05 0.0
Mil-Muğan (1X2) 17.4 17.4 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.7 2.7 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sabah FA; market prices Sabah FA instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Sabah FA 1.59 xG vs Mil-Muğan 1.01 → Sabah FA 49.3%
  • Market: Sabah FA ~83.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.2% · No 47.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premyer Liqa Premyer Liqa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi Baku 6 5 0 1 15
2 Sabah FA 5 5 0 0 15
3 Qarabag 5 4 1 0 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 11
5 Zira 6 3 1 2 10
6 Keshla FC 6 2 3 1 9
7 Kapaz 5 2 1 2 7
8 Qabala 6 1 1 4 4
9 Mil-Muğan 6 1 1 4 4
10 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 3
11 Sumqayıt 5 0 2 3 2
12 Araz 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi Baku 6 18 5 +13 15
2 Sabah FA 5 14 1 +13 15
3 Qarabag 5 9 4 +5 13
4 Keshla FC 6 8 6 +2 9
5 Zira 6 7 8 -1 10
6 Turan 6 6 4 +2 11
7 Mil-Muğan 6 6 11 -5 4
8 Araz 6 5 13 -8 2
9 Kapaz 5 4 7 -3 7
10 Sumqayıt 5 4 8 -4 2
11 Qabala 6 2 7 -5 4
12 Safa Baku 6 2 11 -9 3