Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie B / Verona vs Catanzaro

Verona vs Catanzaro Statistics & Analysis

Verona Verona
Oct 16, 2026 - 18:30
2 2.00
2 1.45
xG Accuracy: 86%
Catanzaro Catanzaro
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Verona Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 10, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14559635

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Verona 2–2 Catanzaro
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Verona vs Catanzaro
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-16 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 24.2% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Verona 2.0 — Catanzaro 1.45 (total xG ≈ 3.45)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.0% · Implied: 53.6% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.4% · No 32.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Palermo 6 5 1 0 16
2 Mantova 6 4 2 0 14
3 Modena 6 4 1 1 13
4 Sudtirol 6 3 3 0 12
5 Ascoli 6 3 2 1 11
6 Avellino 6 3 1 2 10
7 Pisa 6 3 1 2 10
8 Benevento 6 3 1 2 10
9 Verona 6 2 1 3 7
10 Padova 6 2 1 3 7
11 Cesena 6 1 4 1 7
12 Arezzo 6 2 1 3 7
13 Empoli 6 2 0 4 6
14 Virtus Entella 6 1 3 2 6
15 Cremonese 6 1 3 2 6
16 Vicenza Virtus 6 1 2 3 5
17 Carrarese 6 1 1 4 4
18 Sampdoria 6 1 1 4 4
19 Catanzaro 6 1 0 5 3
20 Juve Stabia 6 1 3 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Palermo 6 14 7 +7 16
2 Mantova 6 13 6 +7 14
3 Verona 6 12 10 +2 7
4 Modena 6 11 6 +5 13
5 Avellino 6 11 7 +4 10
6 Pisa 6 11 8 +3 10
7 Sudtirol 6 9 3 +6 12
8 Benevento 6 8 5 +3 10
9 Virtus Entella 6 8 7 +1 6
10 Ascoli 6 7 4 +3 11
11 Cesena 6 7 8 -1 7
12 Vicenza Virtus 6 7 13 -6 5
13 Empoli 6 6 10 -4 6
14 Catanzaro 6 6 12 -6 3
15 Arezzo 6 6 13 -7 7
16 Sampdoria 6 6 13 -7 4
17 Cremonese 6 5 7 -2 6
18 Padova 6 5 8 -3 7
19 Juve Stabia 6 5 8 -3 2
20 Carrarese 6 4 6 -2 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Palermo 6 8.0 4.3 +3.7 16
2 Pisa 6 6.4 2.8 +3.6 10
3 Verona 6 8.8 5.7 +3.1 7
4 Benevento 6 4.3 1.6 +2.7 10
5 Modena 6 5.5 3.3 +2.2 13
6 Mantova 6 5.6 3.5 +2.1 14
7 Carrarese 6 4.3 3.5 +0.8 4
8 Arezzo 6 3.6 2.9 +0.7 7
9 Virtus Entella 6 2.5 2.5 0.0 6
10 Cesena 6 3.5 3.7 -0.2 7
11 Avellino 6 4.8 5.1 -0.3 10
12 Juve Stabia 6 3.1 3.7 -0.6 2
13 Sudtirol 6 2.7 3.5 -0.8 12
14 Sampdoria 6 2.9 4.6 -1.7 4
15 Cremonese 6 0.8 2.8 -2.0 6
16 Vicenza Virtus 6 3.6 5.9 -2.3 5
17 Padova 6 2.7 5.0 -2.3 7
18 Ascoli 6 3.5 6.1 -2.6 11
19 Empoli 6 3.5 6.4 -2.9 6
20 Catanzaro 6 5.0 8.5 -3.5 3
Serie B Italy. Serie B Predictions