Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie B / Carrarese vs Modena

Carrarese vs Modena Statistics & Analysis

Carrarese Carrarese
Oct 17, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.22
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 76%
Modena Modena
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Modena Carrarese ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 12, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-15142038

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Carrarese win · Carrarese 2–1 Modena
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Carrarese vs Modena
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-17 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.0% · Draw 30.3% · Away 37.7%
  • xG (showing): Carrarese 1.22 — Modena 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.46)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 55.4% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +14.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.8% · No 48.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Palermo 6 5 1 0 16
2 Mantova 6 4 2 0 14
3 Modena 6 4 1 1 13
4 Sudtirol 6 3 3 0 12
5 Ascoli 6 3 2 1 11
6 Avellino 6 3 1 2 10
7 Pisa 6 3 1 2 10
8 Benevento 6 3 1 2 10
9 Verona 6 2 1 3 7
10 Padova 6 2 1 3 7
11 Cesena 6 1 4 1 7
12 Arezzo 6 2 1 3 7
13 Empoli 6 2 0 4 6
14 Virtus Entella 6 1 3 2 6
15 Cremonese 6 1 3 2 6
16 Vicenza Virtus 6 1 2 3 5
17 Carrarese 6 1 1 4 4
18 Sampdoria 6 1 1 4 4
19 Catanzaro 6 1 0 5 3
20 Juve Stabia 6 1 3 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Palermo 6 14 7 +7 16
2 Mantova 6 13 6 +7 14
3 Verona 6 12 10 +2 7
4 Modena 6 11 6 +5 13
5 Avellino 6 11 7 +4 10
6 Pisa 6 11 8 +3 10
7 Sudtirol 6 9 3 +6 12
8 Benevento 6 8 5 +3 10
9 Virtus Entella 6 8 7 +1 6
10 Ascoli 6 7 4 +3 11
11 Cesena 6 7 8 -1 7
12 Vicenza Virtus 6 7 13 -6 5
13 Empoli 6 6 10 -4 6
14 Catanzaro 6 6 12 -6 3
15 Arezzo 6 6 13 -7 7
16 Sampdoria 6 6 13 -7 4
17 Cremonese 6 5 7 -2 6
18 Padova 6 5 8 -3 7
19 Juve Stabia 6 5 8 -3 2
20 Carrarese 6 4 6 -2 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Palermo 6 10.0 6.2 +3.8 16
2 Pisa 6 6.4 2.8 +3.6 10
3 Benevento 6 6.3 2.8 +3.5 10
4 Verona 6 8.8 5.7 +3.1 7
5 Mantova 6 7.5 5.5 +2.0 14
6 Carrarese 6 6.1 4.5 +1.6 4
7 Modena 6 6.6 5.1 +1.5 13
8 Virtus Entella 6 4.2 3.2 +1.0 6
9 Arezzo 6 3.6 2.9 +0.7 7
10 Cesena 6 3.5 3.7 -0.2 7
11 Avellino 6 4.8 5.1 -0.3 10
12 Juve Stabia 6 3.1 3.7 -0.6 2
13 Sudtirol 6 2.7 3.5 -0.8 12
14 Sampdoria 6 2.9 4.6 -1.7 4
15 Ascoli 6 5.1 6.9 -1.8 11
16 Cremonese 6 0.8 2.8 -2.0 6
17 Vicenza Virtus 6 4.8 7.9 -3.1 5
18 Padova 6 3.5 6.7 -3.2 7
19 Catanzaro 6 5.0 8.5 -3.5 3
20 Empoli 6 4.3 8.0 -3.7 6
Serie B Italy. Serie B Predictions