Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Aserri FC Statistics & Analysis

Futbol Consultants Moravia

Sep 26, 2026 - 20:00

1 1.46

0 1.14

xG Accuracy: 64%

Aserri FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Futbol Consultants Moravia Futbol Consultants Moravia ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10111359

Closing Odds 1.91

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Futbol Consultants Moravia win · Futbol Consultants Moravia 1–0 Aserri FC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Aserri FC (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Aserri FC (1X2) by about 2.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Futbol Consultants Moravia (1X2)	42.9	46.5	-3.7
Draw (1X2)	29.2	27.5	+1.7
Aserri FC (1X2)	27.9	25.9	+2.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.8	-0.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.2	+0.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.9% on Aserri FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.9%. The difference — about 2.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Futbol Consultants Moravia (1X2)	1.91	1.91
Draw (1X2)	3.23	3.23
Aserri FC (1X2)	3.43	3.43
Over 2.5 goals	1.9	1.9
Under 2.5 goals	1.81	1.81

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga de Ascenso
Fixture: Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Aserri FC
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
xG (showing): Futbol Consultants Moravia 1.46 — Aserri FC 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Ascenso — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Aserri FC	16	7	3	6	24
2	ADR Jicaral	8	5	3	0	18
3	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	9	5	3	1	18
4	Quepos Cambute	8	5	1	2	16
5	Santa Ana	8	5	0	3	15
6	Cariari Pococi	8	3	4	1	13
7	AD Carmelita	9	3	3	3	12
8	Municipal Grecia	7	3	2	2	11
9	AD Sarchí	8	3	2	3	11
10	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	3	1	5	10
11	CS Uruguay	9	2	2	5	8
12	Santa Cruz FC	8	2	0	6	6
13	Guadalupe FC	9	1	3	5	6
14	AD Cofutpa	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Aserri FC	16	18	18	0	24
2	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	9	16	11	+5	18
3	AD Carmelita	9	16	11	+5	12
4	Quepos Cambute	8	13	6	+7	16
5	ADR Jicaral	8	12	4	+8	18
6	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	12	10	+2	10
7	Santa Ana	8	11	9	+2	15
8	Santa Cruz FC	8	11	18	-7	6
9	Cariari Pococi	8	10	8	+2	13
10	Guadalupe FC	9	10	17	-7	6
11	Municipal Grecia	7	8	6	+2	11
12	AD Sarchí	8	8	11	-3	11
13	AD Cofutpa	8	7	14	-7	4
14	CS Uruguay	9	7	16	-9	8