Cariari Pococi vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Statistics & Analysis

Cariari Pococi

Sep 24, 2026 - 19:00

2 1.26

1 1.34

xG Accuracy: 74%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Cariari Pococi ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1956121

Closing Odds 2.01

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Cariari Pococi win · Cariari Pococi 2–1 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.06 percentage points on Cariari Pococi (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Cariari Pococi (1X2)	33.4	44.7	-11.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	26.0	+3.6
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (1X2)	37.0	29.3	+7.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	59.4	-11.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	40.6	+11.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.6%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Cariari Pococi (1X2)	1.94	2.01	-1.1
Draw (1X2)	3.45	3.46	+0.2
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (1X2)	3.12	3.07	+0.8
Over 2.5 goals	1.52	1.55	-0.8
Under 2.5 goals	2.3	2.27	+0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga de Ascenso
Fixture: Cariari Pococi vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-13 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Cariari Pococi 1.26 — Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 45.5% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +3.1 pts · Est. EV: +13.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Cariari Pococi & Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Liga de Ascenso — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Aserri FC	16	7	3	6	24
2	ADR Jicaral	8	5	3	0	18
3	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	9	5	3	1	18
4	Quepos Cambute	8	5	1	2	16
5	Santa Ana	8	5	0	3	15
6	Cariari Pococi	8	3	4	1	13
7	AD Carmelita	9	3	3	3	12
8	Municipal Grecia	7	3	2	2	11
9	AD Sarchí	8	3	2	3	11
10	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	3	1	5	10
11	CS Uruguay	9	2	2	5	8
12	Santa Cruz FC	8	2	0	6	6
13	Guadalupe FC	9	1	3	5	6
14	AD Cofutpa	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Aserri FC	16	18	18	0	24
2	Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC	9	16	11	+5	18
3	AD Carmelita	9	16	11	+5	12
4	Quepos Cambute	8	13	6	+7	16
5	ADR Jicaral	8	12	4	+8	18
6	Futbol Consultants Moravia	9	12	10	+2	10
7	Santa Ana	8	11	9	+2	15
8	Santa Cruz FC	8	11	18	-7	6
9	Cariari Pococi	8	10	8	+2	13
10	Guadalupe FC	9	10	17	-7	6
11	Municipal Grecia	7	8	6	+2	11
12	AD Sarchí	8	8	11	-3	11
13	AD Cofutpa	8	7	14	-7	4
14	CS Uruguay	9	7	16	-9	8