Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie A Women / Parma W vs Ternana W

Parma W vs Ternana W Statistics & Analysis

Parma W Parma W
Oct 03, 2026 - 10:30
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
Ternana W Ternana W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Parma W Ternana W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11220468

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ternana W win · Parma W 1–2 Ternana W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie A Women
  • Fixture: Parma W vs Ternana W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Parma W 1.35 — Ternana W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +4.0 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Women Serie A Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Roma W 2 2 0 0 6
2 Como 1907 W 1 1 0 0 3
3 Juventus W 1 1 0 0 3
4 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 0 3
5 Como W 1 1 0 0 3
6 Ternana W 2 1 0 1 3
7 Fiorentina W 2 1 0 1 3
8 Parma W 2 0 1 1 1
9 Lazio W 2 0 1 1 1
10 Napoli W 1 0 0 1 0
11 AC Milan W 1 0 0 1 0
12 Sassuolo W 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Roma W 2 6 2 +4 6
2 Como 1907 W 1 4 1 +3 3
3 Juventus W 1 3 1 +2 3
4 Ternana W 2 3 3 0 3
5 Inter Milano W 1 2 0 +2 3
6 Como W 1 2 1 +1 3
7 Fiorentina W 2 2 2 0 3
8 Parma W 2 1 2 -1 1
9 Lazio W 2 1 3 -2 1
10 Napoli W 1 1 3 -2 0
11 AC Milan W 1 1 4 -3 0
12 Sassuolo W 2 1 5 -4 0