Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie A Women / AC Milan W vs Juventus W

AC Milan W vs Juventus W Statistics & Analysis

AC Milan W AC Milan W
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 74%
Juventus W Juventus W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Juventus W AC Milan W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11668074

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AC Milan W win · AC Milan W 2–1 Juventus W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie A Women
  • Fixture: AC Milan W vs Juventus W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): AC Milan W 1.26 — Juventus W 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Women Serie A Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Roma W 2 2 0 0 6
2 Como 1907 W 1 1 0 0 3
3 Juventus W 1 1 0 0 3
4 Inter Milano W 1 1 0 0 3
5 Como W 1 1 0 0 3
6 Ternana W 2 1 0 1 3
7 Fiorentina W 2 1 0 1 3
8 Parma W 2 0 1 1 1
9 Lazio W 2 0 1 1 1
10 Napoli W 1 0 0 1 0
11 AC Milan W 1 0 0 1 0
12 Sassuolo W 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Roma W 2 6 2 +4 6
2 Como 1907 W 1 4 1 +3 3
3 Juventus W 1 3 1 +2 3
4 Ternana W 2 3 3 0 3
5 Inter Milano W 1 2 0 +2 3
6 Como W 1 2 1 +1 3
7 Fiorentina W 2 2 2 0 3
8 Parma W 2 1 2 -1 1
9 Lazio W 2 1 3 -2 1
10 Napoli W 1 1 3 -2 0
11 AC Milan W 1 1 4 -3 0
12 Sassuolo W 2 1 5 -4 0