Ternana W vs Como W Statistics & Analysis

Ternana W

Sep 27, 2026 - 10:30

1 1.19

2 1.41

xG Accuracy: 81%

Como W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Como W Como W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10084230

Closing Odds 3.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Como W win · Ternana W 1–2 Como W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ternana W (1X2)	30.1	31.6	-1.4
Draw (1X2)	29.4	27.9	+1.5
Como W (1X2)	40.5	40.5	-0.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	47.8	+0.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	52.2	-0.4

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ternana W (1X2)	2.94	2.94
Draw (1X2)	3.32	3.32
Como W (1X2)	2.29	2.29
Over 2.5 goals	2.0	2.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.83	1.83

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie A Women
Fixture: Ternana W vs Como W
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 10:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
xG (showing): Ternana W 1.19 — Como W 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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