Sassuolo W vs Roma W Statistics & Analysis

Sassuolo W

Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.15

3 1.45

xG Accuracy: 63%

Roma W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Roma W Roma W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10091620

Closing Odds 1.42

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Roma W win · Sassuolo W 1–3 Roma W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sassuolo W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sassuolo W (1X2) by about 13.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sassuolo W (1X2)	28.4	15.1	+13.3
Draw (1X2)	29.2	19.6	+9.7
Roma W (1X2)	42.4	65.4	-23.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.5	-9.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.5	+9.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Sassuolo W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.1%. The difference — about 13.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Sassuolo W (1X2)	6.16	6.16
Draw (1X2)	4.75	4.75
Roma W (1X2)	1.42	1.42
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	2.23	2.23

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie A Women
Fixture: Sassuolo W vs Roma W
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Sassuolo W 1.15 — Roma W 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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