Inter Milano W vs Fiorentina W Statistics & Analysis

Inter Milano W

Sep 27, 2026 - 11:00

2 1.39

0 1.21

xG Accuracy: 61%

Fiorentina W

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Inter Milano W Inter Milano W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10085602

Closing Odds 1.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Inter Milano W win · Inter Milano W 2–0 Fiorentina W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Fiorentina W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fiorentina W (1X2) by about 9.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Inter Milano W (1X2)	39.5	54.2	-14.7
Draw (1X2)	29.5	23.8	+5.6
Fiorentina W (1X2)	31.0	22.0	+9.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	54.2	-6.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	45.8	+6.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Fiorentina W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.0%. The difference — about 9.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Inter Milano W (1X2)	1.69	1.69
Draw (1X2)	3.84	3.84
Fiorentina W (1X2)	4.16	4.16
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	2.05

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie A Women
Fixture: Inter Milano W vs Fiorentina W
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Inter Milano W 1.39 — Fiorentina W 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Inter Milano W & Fiorentina W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics