Statistics / Football / United-Arab-Emirates. Pro League U23 / Ajman U23 vs Al Nasr U23

Ajman U23 vs Al Nasr U23 Statistics & Analysis

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Ajman U23
Sep 07, 2026 - 13:50
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
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Al Nasr U23
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ajman U23 Ajman U23 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6472308

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ajman U23 win · Ajman U23 1–0 Al Nasr U23
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.94 percentage points on Al Nasr U23 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ajman U23 (1X2) 36.1 47.8 -11.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.3 +4.4
Al Nasr U23 (1X2) 34.2 27.0 +7.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.0 -10.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.0 +10.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.0%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ajman U23 (1X2) 1.79 1.88 -1.9
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.55 -0.1
Al Nasr U23 (1X2) 3.55 3.33 +1.9
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.56 +1.6
Under 2.5 goals 2.16 2.24 -1.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League U23
  • Fixture: Ajman U23 vs Al Nasr U23
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-07 13:50:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Ajman U23 1.32 — Al Nasr U23 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.6% · Probability edge: +10.2 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Pro League U23 Pro League U23 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ain U23 5 5 0 0 15
2 Ajman U23 5 4 1 0 13
3 Al Sharjah U23 4 3 1 0 10
4 Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 5 3 1 1 10
5 Al Wahda U23 4 3 0 1 9
6 Ittihad Kalba U23 5 2 1 2 7
7 Al Jazira U23 5 1 3 1 6
8 United FC U23 5 2 0 3 6
9 Al Wasl U23 5 1 2 2 5
10 Hatta U23 5 1 1 3 4
11 Al Dhafra U23 5 1 1 3 4
12 Khorfakkan U23 5 1 1 3 4
13 Al Nasr U23 5 1 0 4 3
14 Bani Yas U23 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ain U23 5 13 2 +11 15
2 Al Wahda U23 4 9 6 +3 9
3 Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 5 9 7 +2 10
4 Al Dhafra U23 5 9 14 -5 4
5 Al Sharjah U23 4 8 1 +7 10
6 Ittihad Kalba U23 5 8 8 0 7
7 Hatta U23 5 8 9 -1 4
8 Al Nasr U23 5 8 13 -5 3
9 United FC U23 5 7 9 -2 6
10 Ajman U23 5 6 2 +4 13
11 Al Jazira U23 5 6 6 0 6
12 Al Wasl U23 5 6 7 -1 5
13 Bani Yas U23 5 6 14 -8 0
14 Khorfakkan U23 5 3 8 -5 4
Pro League U23 United-Arab-Emirates. Pro League U23 Predictions