Statistics / Football / United-Arab-Emirates. Pro League U23 / Ajman U23 vs Al Jazira U23

Ajman U23 vs Al Jazira U23 Statistics & Analysis

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Ajman U23
Aug 30, 2026 - 13:55
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
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Al Jazira U23
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ajman U23 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5294836

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Ajman U23 1–1 Al Jazira U23
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Al Jazira U23 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ajman U23 (1X2) 36.1 40.6 -4.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.6 +3.0
Al Jazira U23 (1X2) 34.2 32.8 +1.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.8 -12.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.2 +12.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.2%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Ajman U23 (1X2) 2.19 2.19 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.34 3.34 0.0
Al Jazira U23 (1X2) 2.71 2.71 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.5 1.5 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.33 2.33 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Pro League U23
  • Fixture: Ajman U23 vs Al Jazira U23
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 13:55:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Ajman U23 1.32 — Al Jazira U23 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.8% · Probability edge: +13.0 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Pro League U23 Pro League U23 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ain U23 5 5 0 0 15
2 Ajman U23 5 4 1 0 13
3 Al Sharjah U23 4 3 1 0 10
4 Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 5 3 1 1 10
5 Al Wahda U23 4 3 0 1 9
6 Ittihad Kalba U23 5 2 1 2 7
7 Al Jazira U23 5 1 3 1 6
8 United FC U23 5 2 0 3 6
9 Al Wasl U23 5 1 2 2 5
10 Hatta U23 5 1 1 3 4
11 Al Dhafra U23 5 1 1 3 4
12 Khorfakkan U23 5 1 1 3 4
13 Al Nasr U23 5 1 0 4 3
14 Bani Yas U23 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ain U23 5 13 2 +11 15
2 Al Wahda U23 4 9 6 +3 9
3 Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 5 9 7 +2 10
4 Al Dhafra U23 5 9 14 -5 4
5 Al Sharjah U23 4 8 1 +7 10
6 Ittihad Kalba U23 5 8 8 0 7
7 Hatta U23 5 8 9 -1 4
8 Al Nasr U23 5 8 13 -5 3
9 United FC U23 5 7 9 -2 6
10 Ajman U23 5 6 2 +4 13
11 Al Jazira U23 5 6 6 0 6
12 Al Wasl U23 5 6 7 -1 5
13 Bani Yas U23 5 6 14 -8 0
14 Khorfakkan U23 5 3 8 -5 4
Pro League U23 United-Arab-Emirates. Pro League U23 Predictions