Skellefteå vs IFK Östersund Statistics & Analysis

Skellefteå

Sep 05, 2026 - 11:00

2 1.30

xG Accuracy: 68%

IFK Östersund

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Skellefteå Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6129015

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Skellefteå 2–2 IFK Östersund

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), IFK Östersund (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Skellefteå (1X2)	35.2	52.8	-17.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.6	+6.0
IFK Östersund (1X2)	35.2	23.5	+11.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.7	-12.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.3	+12.5
BTTS Yes	54.5	60.6	-6.1
BTTS No	45.5	39.4	+6.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.3%. The difference — about 12.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Skellefteå (1X2)	1.7	1.7
Draw (1X2)	3.8	3.8
IFK Östersund (1X2)	3.82	3.82
Over 2.5 goals	1.49	1.49
Under 2.5 goals	2.3	2.3
BTTS Yes	1.5	1.5
BTTS No	2.31	2.31

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division 2 - Norrland
Fixture: Skellefteå vs IFK Östersund
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Skellefteå 1.3 — IFK Östersund 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norrland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Skellefteå	12	8	3	1	27
1	Kubikenborg	12	7	2	3	23
2	Täfteå	12	8	1	3	25
2	Gottne	12	7	2	3	23
3	IFK Luleå	12	8	1	3	25
3	Lucksta	12	5	3	4	18
4	Boden	12	4	5	3	17
4	IFK Östersund	12	4	5	3	17
5	Umeå FC Akademi	12	2	5	5	11
5	Friska Viljor	12	2	6	4	12
6	Storfors	12	2	2	8	8
6	Team Thoren	12	2	5	5	11
7	IFK Umeå	12	1	1	10	4
7	Fransta	12	2	3	7	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Täfteå	12	34	13	+21	25
2	IFK Luleå	12	32	14	+18	25
3	Gottne	12	29	24	+5	23
4	Skellefteå	12	26	8	+18	27
5	Lucksta	12	26	26	0	18
6	Kubikenborg	12	25	16	+9	23
7	IFK Östersund	12	23	20	+3	17
8	Friska Viljor	12	23	21	+2	12
9	Team Thoren	12	22	26	-4	11
10	Umeå FC Akademi	12	17	29	-12	11
11	Fransta	12	17	32	-15	9
12	Boden	12	15	14	+1	17
13	Storfors	12	14	32	-18	8
14	IFK Umeå	12	10	38	-28	4