Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norrland / Skellefteå vs IFK Luleå

Skellefteå vs IFK Luleå Statistics & Analysis

Skellefteå Skellefteå
Aug 15, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 59%
IFK Luleå IFK Luleå
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Skellefteå Skellefteå ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3345862

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Skellefteå win · Skellefteå 3–1 IFK Luleå
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), IFK Luleå (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Skellefteå (1X2) 37.6 49.5 -12.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.1 +3.5
IFK Luleå (1X2) 32.9 24.4 +8.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.6 -10.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.4 +10.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.4%. The difference — about 10.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Skellefteå (1X2) 1.79 1.79 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
IFK Luleå (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norrland
  • Fixture: Skellefteå vs IFK Luleå
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Skellefteå 1.35 — IFK Luleå 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.7% · Probability edge: +12.1 pts · Est. EV: +26.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 2 - Norrland Division 2 - Norrland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skellefteå 12 8 3 1 27
1 Kubikenborg 12 7 2 3 23
2 Täfteå 12 8 1 3 25
2 Gottne 12 7 2 3 23
3 IFK Luleå 12 8 1 3 25
3 Lucksta 12 5 3 4 18
4 Boden 12 4 5 3 17
4 IFK Östersund 12 4 5 3 17
5 Umeå FC Akademi 12 2 5 5 11
5 Friska Viljor 12 2 6 4 12
6 Storfors 12 2 2 8 8
6 Team Thoren 12 2 5 5 11
7 IFK Umeå 12 1 1 10 4
7 Fransta 12 2 3 7 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Täfteå 12 34 13 +21 25
2 IFK Luleå 12 32 14 +18 25
3 Gottne 12 29 24 +5 23
4 Skellefteå 12 26 8 +18 27
5 Lucksta 12 26 26 0 18
6 Kubikenborg 12 25 16 +9 23
7 IFK Östersund 12 23 20 +3 17
8 Friska Viljor 12 23 21 +2 12
9 Team Thoren 12 22 26 -4 11
10 Umeå FC Akademi 12 17 29 -12 11
11 Fransta 12 17 32 -15 9
12 Boden 12 15 14 +1 17
13 Storfors 12 14 32 -18 8
14 IFK Umeå 12 10 38 -28 4
Division 2 - Norrland Sweden. Division 2 - Norrland Predictions