Statistics / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Kagera Sugar vs Azam

Kagera Sugar vs Azam Statistics & Analysis

Kagera Sugar Kagera Sugar
Aug 31, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.07
2 1.53
xG Accuracy: 66%
Azam Azam
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Azam Azam ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5404470

Closing Odds 1.46
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Azam win · Kagera Sugar 0–2 Azam
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Kagera Sugar (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kagera Sugar (1X2) by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kagera Sugar (1X2) 24.9 14.2 +10.8
Draw (1X2) 28.7 25.0 +3.8
Azam (1X2) 46.3 60.9 -14.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 40.3 +7.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 59.7 -7.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.9% on Kagera Sugar (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.2%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kagera Sugar (1X2) 6.26 6.26 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.56 3.56 0.0
Azam (1X2) 1.46 1.46 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.27 2.27 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Kagera Sugar vs Azam
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.3%
  • xG (showing): Kagera Sugar 1.07 — Azam 1.53 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.0% · Implied: 38.7% · Probability edge: +14.3 pts · Est. EV: +29.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 6 6 0 0 18
2 Simba 6 6 0 0 18
3 Azam 7 4 2 1 14
4 Singida Fountain Gate 6 3 1 2 10
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 3 1 2 10
6 Mbeya City 6 3 1 2 10
7 Dodoma Jiji 6 3 1 2 10
8 Mashujaa 6 3 0 3 9
9 Geita Gold 6 2 1 3 7
10 JKT Tanzania 6 2 1 3 7
11 Coastal Union 6 2 1 3 7
12 Kitayosce 6 1 3 2 6
13 Namungo 7 2 0 5 6
14 Singida Big Stars 6 1 1 4 4
15 Kagera Sugar 6 0 2 4 2
16 Pamba Jiji 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 6 16 2 +14 18
2 Singida Fountain Gate 6 13 9 +4 10
3 Simba 6 11 2 +9 18
4 Azam 7 11 7 +4 14
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 9 7 +2 10
6 Geita Gold 6 9 8 +1 7
7 JKT Tanzania 6 7 10 -3 7
8 Mbeya City 6 6 4 +2 10
9 Mashujaa 6 6 6 0 9
10 Kitayosce 6 6 6 0 6
11 Coastal Union 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Namungo 7 6 11 -5 6
13 Kagera Sugar 6 5 14 -9 2
14 Dodoma Jiji 6 4 4 0 10
15 Pamba Jiji 6 4 13 -9 1
16 Singida Big Stars 6 2 9 -7 4