Statistics / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Dodoma Jiji vs Polisi Tanzania

Dodoma Jiji vs Polisi Tanzania Statistics & Analysis

Dodoma Jiji Dodoma Jiji
Aug 25, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
Polisi Tanzania Polisi Tanzania
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Polisi Tanzania Polisi Tanzania ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 19, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4552123

Closing Odds 3.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Polisi Tanzania win · Dodoma Jiji 0–1 Polisi Tanzania
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.84 percentage points on Dodoma Jiji (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Polisi Tanzania (1X2) by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dodoma Jiji (1X2) 32.9 40.9 -8.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 32.7 -3.1
Polisi Tanzania (1X2) 37.6 26.4 +11.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 37.5 +10.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 62.5 -10.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Polisi Tanzania (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.4%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dodoma Jiji (1X2) 2.1 2.2 -1.8
Draw (1X2) 2.9 2.75 +1.8
Polisi Tanzania (1X2) 3.4 3.4 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.5 2.5 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.5 1.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Dodoma Jiji vs Polisi Tanzania
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-25 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Dodoma Jiji 1.25 — Polisi Tanzania 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +17.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 6 6 0 0 18
2 Simba 6 6 0 0 18
3 Azam 7 4 2 1 14
4 Singida Fountain Gate 6 3 1 2 10
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 3 1 2 10
6 Mbeya City 6 3 1 2 10
7 Dodoma Jiji 6 3 1 2 10
8 Mashujaa 6 3 0 3 9
9 Geita Gold 6 2 1 3 7
10 JKT Tanzania 6 2 1 3 7
11 Coastal Union 6 2 1 3 7
12 Kitayosce 6 1 3 2 6
13 Namungo 7 2 0 5 6
14 Singida Big Stars 6 1 1 4 4
15 Kagera Sugar 6 0 2 4 2
16 Pamba Jiji 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 6 16 2 +14 18
2 Singida Fountain Gate 6 13 9 +4 10
3 Simba 6 11 2 +9 18
4 Azam 7 11 7 +4 14
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 9 7 +2 10
6 Geita Gold 6 9 8 +1 7
7 JKT Tanzania 6 7 10 -3 7
8 Mbeya City 6 6 4 +2 10
9 Mashujaa 6 6 6 0 9
10 Kitayosce 6 6 6 0 6
11 Coastal Union 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Namungo 7 6 11 -5 6
13 Kagera Sugar 6 5 14 -9 2
14 Dodoma Jiji 6 4 4 0 10
15 Pamba Jiji 6 4 13 -9 1
16 Singida Big Stars 6 2 9 -7 4