Statistics / Football / El-Salvador. Primera Division / Municipal Limeño vs Firpo

Municipal Limeño vs Firpo Statistics & Analysis

Municipal Limeño Municipal Limeño
Oct 11, 2026 - 01:00
2 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 52%
Firpo Firpo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Firpo Firpo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13240777

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Firpo win · Municipal Limeño 2–3 Firpo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera Division
  • Fixture: Municipal Limeño vs Firpo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Municipal Limeño 1.27 — Firpo 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Division Primera Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FAS 13 8 3 2 27
2 Isidro Metapán 13 8 2 3 26
3 Firpo 13 7 4 2 25
4 Inter 14 5 7 2 22
5 Águila 14 5 5 4 20
6 Platense 15 5 4 6 19
7 Alianza 13 4 6 3 18
8 Municipal Limeño 14 5 2 7 17
9 Inca Aruba 15 4 4 7 16
10 Atletico Balboa 14 3 4 7 13
11 Fuerte San Francisco 15 2 6 7 12
12 Cacahuatique 15 2 5 8 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAS 13 24 12 +12 27
2 Firpo 13 23 9 +14 25
3 Águila 14 22 18 +4 20
4 Isidro Metapán 13 20 12 +8 26
5 Alianza 13 20 19 +1 18
6 Inter 14 19 12 +7 22
7 Municipal Limeño 14 19 19 0 17
8 Platense 15 19 20 -1 19
9 Atletico Balboa 14 15 22 -7 13
10 Cacahuatique 15 15 26 -11 11
11 Inca Aruba 15 13 27 -14 16
12 Fuerte San Francisco 15 11 24 -13 12
Primera Division El-Salvador. Primera Division Predictions