Atletico Balboa vs FAS Statistics & Analysis

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Atletico Balboa

Oct 11, 2026 - 21:00

0 1.16

1 1.44

xG Accuracy: 64%

FAS

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 FAS FAS ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238959

Closing Odds 1.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result FAS win · Atletico Balboa 0–1 FAS

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atletico Balboa (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atletico Balboa (1X2) by about 12.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Atletico Balboa (1X2)	28.8	16.6	+12.2
Draw (1X2)	29.3	23.3	+6.1
FAS (1X2)	41.9	60.2	-18.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.8% on Atletico Balboa (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.6%. The difference — about 12.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: melbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Atletico Balboa (1X2)	5.44	5.44
Draw (1X2)	3.88	3.88
FAS (1X2)	1.5	1.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: Atletico Balboa vs FAS
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Atletico Balboa 1.16 — FAS 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Firpo	14	8	4	2	28
2	FAS	13	8	3	2	27
3	Isidro Metapán	13	8	2	3	26
4	Inter	14	5	7	2	22
5	Águila	14	5	5	4	20
6	Platense	15	5	4	6	19
7	Alianza	13	4	6	3	18
8	Municipal Limeño	15	5	2	8	17
9	Inca Aruba	15	4	4	7	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	3	4	7	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	2	6	7	12
12	Cacahuatique	15	2	5	8	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Firpo	14	26	11	+15	28
2	FAS	13	24	12	+12	27
3	Águila	14	22	18	+4	20
4	Municipal Limeño	15	21	22	-1	17
5	Isidro Metapán	13	20	12	+8	26
6	Alianza	13	20	19	+1	18
7	Inter	14	19	12	+7	22
8	Platense	15	19	20	-1	19
9	Atletico Balboa	14	15	22	-7	13
10	Cacahuatique	15	15	26	-11	11
11	Inca Aruba	15	13	27	-14	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	15	11	24	-13	12