Águila vs Isidro Metapán Statistics & Analysis

Águila

Oct 11, 2026 - 21:00

3 1.43

0 1.17

xG Accuracy: 47%

Isidro Metapán

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Águila Águila ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238988

Closing Odds 3.14

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Águila win · Águila 3–0 Isidro Metapán

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Águila (1X2)	41.4	41.6	-0.2
Draw (1X2)	29.4	29.7	-0.3
Isidro Metapán (1X2)	29.3	28.7	+0.5

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: melbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Águila (1X2)	2.17	2.17
Draw (1X2)	3.04	3.04
Isidro Metapán (1X2)	3.14	3.14

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: Águila vs Isidro Metapán
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Águila 1.43 — Isidro Metapán 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +4.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Firpo	14	8	4	2	28
2	FAS	13	8	3	2	27
3	Isidro Metapán	13	8	2	3	26
4	Inter	14	5	7	2	22
5	Águila	14	5	5	4	20
6	Platense	15	5	4	6	19
7	Alianza	13	4	6	3	18
8	Municipal Limeño	15	5	2	8	17
9	Inca Aruba	15	4	4	7	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	3	4	7	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	2	6	7	12
12	Cacahuatique	15	2	5	8	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Firpo	14	26	11	+15	28
2	FAS	13	24	12	+12	27
3	Águila	14	22	18	+4	20
4	Municipal Limeño	15	21	22	-1	17
5	Isidro Metapán	13	20	12	+8	26
6	Alianza	13	20	19	+1	18
7	Inter	14	19	12	+7	22
8	Platense	15	19	20	-1	19
9	Atletico Balboa	14	15	22	-7	13
10	Cacahuatique	15	15	26	-11	11
11	Inca Aruba	15	13	27	-14	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	15	11	24	-13	12