Alianza vs Inter Statistics & Analysis

Alianza

Oct 11, 2026 - 23:30

2 1.33

2 1.27

xG Accuracy: 68%

Inter

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Alianza Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13184511

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Alianza 2–2 Inter

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: Alianza vs Inter
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Alianza 1.33 — Inter 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Firpo	14	8	4	2	28
2	FAS	13	8	3	2	27
3	Isidro Metapán	13	8	2	3	26
4	Inter	14	5	7	2	22
5	Águila	14	5	5	4	20
6	Platense	15	5	4	6	19
7	Alianza	13	4	6	3	18
8	Municipal Limeño	15	5	2	8	17
9	Inca Aruba	15	4	4	7	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	3	4	7	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	2	6	7	12
12	Cacahuatique	15	2	5	8	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Firpo	14	26	11	+15	28
2	FAS	13	24	12	+12	27
3	Águila	14	22	18	+4	20
4	Municipal Limeño	15	21	22	-1	17
5	Isidro Metapán	13	20	12	+8	26
6	Alianza	13	20	19	+1	18
7	Inter	14	19	12	+7	22
8	Platense	15	19	20	-1	19
9	Atletico Balboa	14	15	22	-7	13
10	Cacahuatique	15	15	26	-11	11
11	Inca Aruba	15	13	27	-14	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	15	11	24	-13	12