FAS vs Inca Aruba Statistics & Analysis

FAS

Oct 05, 2026 - 01:00

1 1.48

1 1.12

xG Accuracy: 85%

⚽

Inca Aruba

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 FAS Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11669223

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · FAS 1–1 Inca Aruba

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: FAS vs Inca Aruba
Kickoff: 2026-10-05 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): FAS 1.48 — Inca Aruba 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Isidro Metapán	13	8	2	3	26
2	Firpo	13	7	4	2	25
3	FAS	12	7	3	2	24
4	Inter	14	5	7	2	22
5	Águila	14	5	5	4	20
6	Alianza	12	4	6	2	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	5	2	7	17
8	Platense	14	4	4	6	16
9	Inca Aruba	14	4	4	6	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	3	4	7	13
11	Cacahuatique	14	2	5	7	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	1	6	7	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Firpo	13	23	9	+14	25
2	FAS	12	22	11	+11	24
3	Águila	14	22	18	+4	20
4	Isidro Metapán	13	20	12	+8	26
5	Inter	14	19	12	+7	22
6	Alianza	12	19	17	+2	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	19	19	0	17
8	Platense	14	15	19	-4	16
9	Atletico Balboa	14	15	22	-7	13
10	Cacahuatique	14	14	24	-10	11
11	Inca Aruba	14	12	23	-11	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	9	23	-14	9