Isidro Metapán vs Atletico Balboa Statistics & Analysis

Isidro Metapán

Oct 03, 2026 - 23:00

3 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 52%

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Atletico Balboa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Atletico Balboa Isidro Metapán ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 04:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11264264

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Isidro Metapán win · Isidro Metapán 3–2 Atletico Balboa

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: Isidro Metapán vs Atletico Balboa
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Isidro Metapán 1.26 — Atletico Balboa 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.7% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +10.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Firpo	12	7	3	2	24
2	FAS	11	7	2	2	23
3	Isidro Metapán	12	7	2	3	23
4	Inter	13	5	6	2	21
5	Alianza	11	4	5	2	17
6	Águila	13	4	5	4	17
7	Municipal Limeño	13	5	2	6	17
8	Inca Aruba	13	4	3	6	15
9	Platense	13	3	4	6	13
10	Atletico Balboa	13	3	4	6	13
11	Cacahuatique	13	2	5	6	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	13	1	5	7	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Firpo	12	21	7	+14	24
2	FAS	11	21	10	+11	23
3	Inter	13	18	11	+7	21
4	Águila	13	18	17	+1	17
5	Municipal Limeño	13	18	17	+1	17
6	Isidro Metapán	12	17	10	+7	23
7	Alianza	11	17	15	+2	17
8	Platense	13	13	18	-5	13
9	Atletico Balboa	13	13	19	-6	13
10	Cacahuatique	13	13	20	-7	11
11	Inca Aruba	13	11	22	-11	15
12	Fuerte San Francisco	13	8	22	-14	8