Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo Statistics & Analysis

Fuerte San Francisco

Oct 01, 2026 - 21:30

0 1.17

3 1.43

xG Accuracy: 47%

Firpo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Firpo Firpo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10758345

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Firpo win · Fuerte San Francisco 0–3 Firpo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo
Kickoff: 2026-10-01 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Fuerte San Francisco 1.17 — Firpo 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Isidro Metapán	13	8	2	3	26
2	Firpo	13	7	4	2	25
3	FAS	12	7	3	2	24
4	Inter	14	5	7	2	22
5	Águila	14	5	5	4	20
6	Alianza	12	4	6	2	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	5	2	7	17
8	Platense	14	4	4	6	16
9	Inca Aruba	14	4	4	6	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	3	4	7	13
11	Cacahuatique	14	2	5	7	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	1	6	7	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Firpo	13	23	9	+14	25
2	FAS	12	22	11	+11	24
3	Águila	14	22	18	+4	20
4	Isidro Metapán	13	20	12	+8	26
5	Inter	14	19	12	+7	22
6	Alianza	12	19	17	+2	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	19	19	0	17
8	Platense	14	15	19	-4	16
9	Atletico Balboa	14	15	22	-7	13
10	Cacahuatique	14	14	24	-10	11
11	Inca Aruba	14	12	23	-11	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	9	23	-14	9