Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco Statistics & Analysis

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Inca Aruba

Sep 19, 2026 - 00:00

2 1.38

1 1.22

xG Accuracy: 79%

Fuerte San Francisco

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Inca Aruba Inca Aruba ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8653852

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Inca Aruba win · Inca Aruba 2–1 Fuerte San Francisco

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: Inca Aruba vs Fuerte San Francisco
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 00:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Inca Aruba 1.38 — Fuerte San Francisco 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FAS	10	6	2	2	20
2	Inter	11	5	5	1	20
3	Isidro Metapán	11	6	2	3	20
4	Firpo	10	5	3	2	18
5	Municipal Limeño	11	5	2	4	17
6	Águila	11	3	5	3	14
7	Alianza	9	3	4	2	13
8	Atletico Balboa	11	3	3	5	12
9	Platense	11	3	3	5	12
10	Inca Aruba	11	3	2	6	11
11	Cacahuatique	11	1	5	5	8
12	Fuerte San Francisco	11	1	4	6	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FAS	10	18	9	+9	20
2	Firpo	10	16	7	+9	18
3	Inter	11	16	8	+8	20
4	Municipal Limeño	11	16	12	+4	17
5	Águila	11	16	14	+2	14
6	Isidro Metapán	11	15	10	+5	20
7	Alianza	9	14	13	+1	13
8	Atletico Balboa	11	12	16	-4	12
9	Platense	11	12	16	-4	12
10	Cacahuatique	11	11	18	-7	8
11	Fuerte San Francisco	11	8	19	-11	7
12	Inca Aruba	11	8	20	-12	11