FAS vs Alianza Statistics & Analysis

FAS

Oct 09, 2026 - 01:30

2 1.47

1 1.13

xG Accuracy: 83%

Alianza

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 FAS FAS ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7462457

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result FAS win · FAS 2–1 Alianza

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.48 percentage points on FAS (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Alianza (1X2) by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
FAS (1X2)	43.3	52.0	-8.7
Draw (1X2)	29.2	25.3	+3.9
Alianza (1X2)	27.5	22.7	+4.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.5% on Alianza (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.7%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings → stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
FAS (1X2)	1.68	1.75	-2.5
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.6	+0.5
Alianza (1X2)	4.4	4.0	+1.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: FAS vs Alianza
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
xG (showing): FAS 1.47 — Alianza 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Isidro Metapán	13	8	2	3	26
2	Firpo	13	7	4	2	25
3	FAS	12	7	3	2	24
4	Inter	14	5	7	2	22
5	Águila	14	5	5	4	20
6	Alianza	12	4	6	2	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	5	2	7	17
8	Platense	14	4	4	6	16
9	Inca Aruba	14	4	4	6	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	3	4	7	13
11	Cacahuatique	14	2	5	7	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	1	6	7	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Firpo	13	23	9	+14	25
2	FAS	12	22	11	+11	24
3	Águila	14	22	18	+4	20
4	Isidro Metapán	13	20	12	+8	26
5	Inter	14	19	12	+7	22
6	Alianza	12	19	17	+2	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	19	19	0	17
8	Platense	14	15	19	-4	16
9	Atletico Balboa	14	15	22	-7	13
10	Cacahuatique	14	14	24	-10	11
11	Inca Aruba	14	12	23	-11	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	9	23	-14	9