Fuerte San Francisco vs Municipal Limeño Statistics & Analysis

Fuerte San Francisco

Sep 13, 2026 - 21:00

0 1.23

2 1.37

xG Accuracy: 60%

Municipal Limeño

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Municipal Limeño Municipal Limeño ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461213

Closing Odds 1.79

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Municipal Limeño win · Fuerte San Francisco 0–2 Municipal Limeño

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fuerte San Francisco (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fuerte San Francisco (1X2) by about 10.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Fuerte San Francisco (1X2)	31.9	21.9	+10.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	26.9	+2.6
Municipal Limeño (1X2)	38.5	51.2	-12.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	44.2	+4.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	55.8	-4.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Fuerte San Francisco (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.9%. The difference — about 10.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Fuerte San Francisco (1X2)	4.18	4.18
Draw (1X2)	3.4	3.4
Municipal Limeño (1X2)	1.79	1.79
Over 2.5 goals	2.12	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	1.68	1.68

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: Fuerte San Francisco vs Municipal Limeño
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): Fuerte San Francisco 1.23 — Municipal Limeño 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 48.3% · Probability edge: +6.1 pts · Est. EV: +6.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FAS	11	7	2	2	23
2	Isidro Metapán	12	7	2	3	23
3	Firpo	11	6	3	2	21
4	Inter	13	5	6	2	21
5	Municipal Limeño	12	5	2	5	17
6	Águila	13	4	5	4	17
7	Alianza	10	3	5	2	14
8	Platense	12	3	4	5	13
9	Atletico Balboa	13	3	4	6	13
10	Inca Aruba	12	3	3	6	12
11	Cacahuatique	13	2	5	6	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	12	1	5	6	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FAS	11	21	10	+11	23
2	Firpo	11	18	7	+11	21
3	Inter	13	18	11	+7	21
4	Águila	13	18	17	+1	17
5	Isidro Metapán	12	17	10	+7	23
6	Municipal Limeño	12	17	15	+2	17
7	Alianza	10	15	14	+1	14
8	Atletico Balboa	13	13	19	-6	13
9	Cacahuatique	13	13	20	-7	11
10	Platense	12	12	16	-4	13
11	Inca Aruba	12	9	21	-12	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	12	8	19	-11	8