Spartak Myjava W vs Mgarr W Statistics & Analysis

Spartak Myjava W

Jul 25, 2026 - 17:00

6 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 26%

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Mgarr W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Spartak Myjava W Spartak Myjava W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1549161

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Spartak Myjava W win · Spartak Myjava W 6–1 Mgarr W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: UEFA Women's Champions League
Fixture: Spartak Myjava W vs Mgarr W
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Spartak Myjava W 1.32 — Mgarr W 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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