Stellenbosch vs Marumo Gallants Statistics & Analysis

Stellenbosch

Aug 14, 2026 - 17:30

3 0.82

1 0.79

xG Accuracy: 52%

Marumo Gallants

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 draw Stellenbosch ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3233731

Closing Odds 1.92

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Stellenbosch win · Stellenbosch 3–1 Marumo Gallants

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Marumo Gallants (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Stellenbosch (1X2)	34.7	48.4	-13.7
Draw (1X2)	37.3	30.9	+6.4
Marumo Gallants (1X2)	28.1	20.7	+7.3
Over 2.5 goals	21.9	34.5	-12.6
Under 2.5 goals	78.1	65.5	+12.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 78.1% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 65.5%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Stellenbosch (1X2)	1.92	1.92
Draw (1X2)	3.01	3.01
Marumo Gallants (1X2)	4.48	4.48
Over 2.5 goals	2.71	2.71
Under 2.5 goals	1.43	1.43

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier Soccer League
Fixture: Stellenbosch vs Marumo Gallants
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 37.3% · Away 28.1%
xG (showing): Stellenbosch 0.82 — Marumo Gallants 0.79 (total xG ≈ 1.61)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 78.1% · Implied: 64.6% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +14.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 32.2% · No 67.8%
Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (20.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Soccer League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	6	2	0	20
2	Orlando Pirates	7	6	1	0	19
3	Amazulu	7	5	1	1	16
4	Kaizer Chiefs	7	3	4	0	13
5	Milford FC	8	3	3	2	12
6	Sekhukhune United	7	3	2	2	11
7	Stellenbosch	7	2	3	2	9
8	Golden Arrows	7	1	5	1	8
9	Chippa United	7	1	5	1	8
10	Durban City	7	1	4	2	7
11	Polokwane City	7	1	4	2	7
12	TS Galaxy	7	1	3	3	6
13	Kruger United	7	1	1	5	4
14	Richards Bay	7	0	3	4	3
15	Siwelele	7	0	3	4	3
16	Marumo Gallants	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	19	7	+12	20
2	Orlando Pirates	7	16	1	+15	19
3	Kaizer Chiefs	7	12	7	+5	13
4	Amazulu	7	10	7	+3	16
5	Milford FC	8	9	7	+2	12
6	Richards Bay	7	9	16	-7	3
7	Stellenbosch	7	8	7	+1	9
8	Polokwane City	7	8	10	-2	7
9	Sekhukhune United	7	7	7	0	11
10	TS Galaxy	7	7	9	-2	6
11	Siwelele	7	6	13	-7	3
12	Marumo Gallants	7	5	13	-8	2
13	Durban City	7	4	5	-1	7
14	Chippa United	7	4	6	-2	8
15	Golden Arrows	7	3	3	0	8
16	Kruger United	7	3	12	-9	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	13.8	4.3	+9.5	20
2	Orlando Pirates	7	5.7	2.6	+3.1	19
3	Durban City	7	5.3	2.7	+2.6	7
4	Kaizer Chiefs	7	4.9	3.0	+1.9	13
5	Sekhukhune United	7	3.4	2.8	+0.6	11
6	Golden Arrows	7	4.4	4.3	+0.1	8
7	Polokwane City	7	4.0	3.9	+0.1	7
8	Amazulu	7	4.7	5.8	-1.1	16
9	Stellenbosch	7	3.4	4.5	-1.1	9
10	Kruger United	7	2.4	3.7	-1.3	4
11	Chippa United	7	1.7	3.4	-1.7	8
12	TS Galaxy	7	5.0	6.8	-1.8	6
13	Milford FC	8	4.0	6.2	-2.2	12
14	Marumo Gallants	7	2.1	4.4	-2.3	2
15	Siwelele	7	4.8	7.7	-2.9	3
16	Richards Bay	7	3.4	7.0	-3.6	3