Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca - 2 / Petrópolis vs Artsul

Petrópolis vs Artsul Statistics & Analysis

Petrópolis Petrópolis
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 85%
Artsul Artsul
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Petrópolis Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12703299

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Petrópolis 1–1 Artsul
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Carioca - 2
  • Fixture: Petrópolis vs Artsul
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Petrópolis 1.31 — Artsul 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca - 2 Carioca - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Niteroiense 6 5 1 0 16
2 Duque de Caxias 6 4 0 2 12
3 Serrano RJ 6 3 2 1 11
4 Goytacaz 6 3 2 1 11
5 Petrópolis 6 2 4 0 10
6 Artsul 6 2 3 1 9
7 Campo Grande 6 2 2 2 8
8 Macaé 6 2 1 3 7
9 São Cristóvão RJ 6 1 3 2 6
10 Nova Cidade 6 1 2 3 5
11 Audax Rio 6 0 1 5 1
12 Carapebus 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Niteroiense 6 10 2 +8 16
2 Duque de Caxias 6 10 5 +5 12
3 Artsul 6 9 7 +2 9
4 Petrópolis 6 7 4 +3 10
5 Serrano RJ 6 7 6 +1 11
6 Macaé 6 7 7 0 7
7 Goytacaz 6 6 5 +1 11
8 Campo Grande 6 6 8 -2 8
9 Nova Cidade 6 6 8 -2 5
10 Carapebus 6 5 13 -8 1
11 São Cristóvão RJ 6 4 5 -1 6
12 Audax Rio 6 2 9 -7 1
Carioca - 2 Brazil. Carioca - 2 Predictions