Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca - 2 / Artsul vs Serrano RJ

Artsul vs Serrano RJ Statistics & Analysis

Artsul Artsul
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.27
4 1.33
xG Accuracy: 30%
Serrano RJ Serrano RJ
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Serrano RJ Serrano RJ ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11258528

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Serrano RJ win · Artsul 3–4 Serrano RJ
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Carioca - 2
  • Fixture: Artsul vs Serrano RJ
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Artsul 1.27 — Serrano RJ 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca - 2 Carioca - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Niteroiense 4 3 1 0 10
2 Duque de Caxias 4 3 0 1 9
3 Petrópolis 4 2 2 0 8
4 Artsul 4 2 2 0 8
5 Campo Grande 4 2 1 1 7
6 Goytacaz 4 2 1 1 7
7 São Cristóvão RJ 4 1 2 1 5
8 Serrano RJ 4 1 2 1 5
9 Macaé 4 1 1 2 4
10 Nova Cidade 4 0 1 3 1
11 Carapebus 4 0 1 3 1
12 Audax Rio 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Duque de Caxias 4 8 3 +5 9
2 Niteroiense 4 6 1 +5 10
3 Petrópolis 4 6 3 +3 8
4 Campo Grande 4 6 5 +1 7
5 Artsul 4 5 2 +3 8
6 Goytacaz 4 3 3 0 7
7 São Cristóvão RJ 4 3 3 0 5
8 Macaé 4 3 3 0 4
9 Nova Cidade 4 3 8 -5 1
10 Serrano RJ 4 2 3 -1 5
11 Audax Rio 4 2 8 -6 0
12 Carapebus 4 1 6 -5 1
Carioca - 2 Brazil. Carioca - 2 Predictions