Statistics / Football / Brazil. Carioca - 2 / Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade

Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade Statistics & Analysis

Sep 19, 2026 - 17:45
1 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Niteroiense Niteroiense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8706463

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Niteroiense win · Niteroiense 1–0 Nova Cidade
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Carioca - 2
  • Fixture: Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Niteroiense 1.34 — Nova Cidade 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca - 2 Carioca - 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Duque de Caxias 3 3 0 0 9
2 Artsul 3 2 1 0 7
3 Niteroiense 3 2 1 0 7
4 Campo Grande 3 2 0 1 6
5 Petrópolis 3 1 2 0 5
6 São Cristóvão RJ 4 1 2 1 5
7 Goytacaz 3 1 1 1 4
8 Serrano RJ 3 1 1 1 4
9 Macaé 3 1 0 2 3
10 Nova Cidade 3 0 1 2 1
11 Carapebus 4 0 1 3 1
12 Audax Rio 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Duque de Caxias 3 8 1 +7 9
2 Artsul 3 5 2 +3 7
3 Campo Grande 3 5 4 +1 6
4 Niteroiense 3 4 1 +3 7
5 Petrópolis 3 3 1 +2 5
6 São Cristóvão RJ 4 3 3 0 5
7 Macaé 3 3 3 0 3
8 Nova Cidade 3 2 6 -4 1
9 Goytacaz 3 1 2 -1 4
10 Serrano RJ 3 1 2 -1 4
11 Carapebus 4 1 6 -5 1
12 Audax Rio 3 0 5 -5 0