Statistics / Football / France. National 2 - Group C / Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Chasselay MDA

Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Chasselay MDA Statistics & Analysis

Fréjus St-Raphaël Fréjus St-Raphaël
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.27
4 1.33
xG Accuracy: 39%
Chasselay MDA Chasselay MDA
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chasselay MDA Chasselay MDA ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8702864

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chasselay MDA win · Fréjus St-Raphaël 2–4 Chasselay MDA
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National 2 - Group C
  • Fixture: Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Chasselay MDA
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Fréjus St-Raphaël 1.27 — Chasselay MDA 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National 2 - Group C National 2 - Group C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nimes 5 5 0 0 15
2 Hyères 5 3 2 0 11
3 Toulon 5 2 2 1 8
4 Ouest Tourangeau 4 2 2 0 8
5 Hauts Lyonnais 5 2 2 1 8
6 Troyes II 5 2 1 2 7
7 Andrézieux 5 2 1 2 7
8 Rumilly Vallières 5 2 0 3 6
9 Chasselay MDA 4 1 3 0 6
10 Fréjus St-Raphaël 5 2 0 3 6
11 Limonest 4 1 2 1 5
12 Saint-Priest 5 1 2 2 5
13 Bourges Foot 18 4 0 4 0 4
14 Istres 5 0 3 2 3
15 Lyon Duchere 5 1 0 4 3
16 Chateauroux 4 0 2 2 2
17 Canet Roussillon 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nimes 5 14 2 +12 15
2 Rumilly Vallières 5 11 7 +4 6
3 Hyères 5 10 3 +7 11
4 Toulon 5 8 5 +3 8
5 Andrézieux 5 8 7 +1 7
6 Fréjus St-Raphaël 5 8 10 -2 6
7 Chasselay MDA 4 7 5 +2 6
8 Hauts Lyonnais 5 6 6 0 8
9 Troyes II 5 6 10 -4 7
10 Lyon Duchere 5 6 14 -8 3
11 Saint-Priest 5 5 9 -4 5
12 Limonest 4 4 4 0 5
13 Ouest Tourangeau 4 3 1 +2 8
14 Canet Roussillon 5 3 10 -7 2
15 Istres 5 2 6 -4 3
16 Bourges Foot 18 4 1 1 0 4
17 Chateauroux 4 1 3 -2 2
National 2 - Group C France. National 2 - Group C Predictions