Statistics / Football / United-Arab-Emirates. Pro League / Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC

Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC Statistics & Analysis

Al-Ittihad Kalba Al-Ittihad Kalba
Aug 21, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.20
3 1.40
xG Accuracy: 46%
Al-Wasl FC Al-Wasl FC
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al-Wasl FC Al-Wasl FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4021280

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Al-Wasl FC win · Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–3 Al-Wasl FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Al-Ittihad Kalba (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Al-Ittihad Kalba (1X2) 30.6 22.6 +8.0
Draw (1X2) 29.5 22.6 +6.8
Al-Wasl FC (1X2) 40.0 54.8 -14.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.5 -12.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.5 +12.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.5%. The difference — about 12.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Al-Ittihad Kalba (1X2) 4.2 4.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.19 4.19 0.0
Al-Wasl FC (1X2) 1.73 1.73 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.41 2.41 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Pro League
  • Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Wasl FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.2 — Al-Wasl FC 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +24.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Pro League Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al-Jazira 5 4 1 0 13
2 Al Ain 5 4 1 0 13
3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5 3 1 1 10
4 Al-Wasl FC 5 3 1 1 10
5 Ajman 5 3 0 2 9
6 Al Wahda FC 5 3 0 2 9
7 Sharjah FC 5 3 0 2 9
8 Dubai United 5 2 1 2 7
9 Al Nasr 5 1 2 2 5
10 Al-Ittihad Kalba 5 1 1 3 4
11 Khorfakkan 5 1 1 3 4
12 Al-Dhafra 5 1 0 4 3
13 Hatta SC 5 1 0 4 3
14 Baniyas SC 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al-Wasl FC 5 15 6 +9 10
2 Al Ain 5 12 5 +7 13
3 Dubai United 5 12 13 -1 7
4 Al-Jazira 5 11 2 +9 13
5 Ajman 5 11 12 -1 9
6 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5 10 5 +5 10
7 Sharjah FC 5 10 7 +3 9
8 Al Wahda FC 5 6 5 +1 9
9 Al Nasr 5 6 7 -1 5
10 Al-Ittihad Kalba 5 6 13 -7 4
11 Baniyas SC 5 5 10 -5 1
12 Hatta SC 5 5 11 -6 3
13 Khorfakkan 5 5 12 -7 4
14 Al-Dhafra 5 3 9 -6 3