Statistics / Football / Poland. Central Youth League / Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19

Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19 Statistics & Analysis

Raków Częstochowa U19 Raków Częstochowa U19
Aug 15, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
Arka Gdynia U19 Arka Gdynia U19
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Raków Częstochowa U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3340410

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Raków Częstochowa U19 1–1 Arka Gdynia U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.59 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Raków Częstochowa U19 (1X2) 36.6 46.1 -9.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.5 +5.2
Arka Gdynia U19 (1X2) 33.8 29.4 +4.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.3 -18.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.7 +18.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.7%. The difference — about 18.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Raków Częstochowa U19 (1X2) 1.83 1.95 -2.9
Draw (1X2) 4.5 3.67 +4.6
Arka Gdynia U19 (1X2) 2.88 3.06 -1.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.39 -2.5
Under 2.5 goals 3.0 2.73 +2.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Central Youth League
  • Fixture: Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Raków Częstochowa U19 1.33 — Arka Gdynia U19 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.1% · Probability edge: +18.7 pts · Est. EV: +55.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Central Youth League Central Youth League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 8 6 2 0 20
2 Śląsk Wrocław U19 8 5 2 1 17
3 Wisła Kraków U19 7 3 3 1 12
4 Talent Warszawa U19 8 4 0 4 12
5 Miedź Legnica U19 7 4 0 3 12
6 Zagłębie Lubin U19 7 4 0 3 12
7 Jagiellonia U19 7 3 2 2 11
8 Raków Częstochowa U19 8 3 1 4 10
9 Lech Poznań U19 7 3 0 4 9
10 Arkonia U19 8 2 3 3 9
11 Górnik Zabrze U19 8 1 5 2 8
12 Stal Rzeszów U19 8 2 2 4 8
13 Korona Kielce U19 7 2 2 3 8
14 Polonia Warszawa U19 7 2 1 4 7
15 Arka Gdynia U19 8 1 3 4 6
16 Escola Varsovia U19 7 2 0 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 8 20 9 +11 20
2 Raków Częstochowa U19 8 16 13 +3 10
3 Talent Warszawa U19 8 16 15 +1 12
4 Wisła Kraków U19 7 13 8 +5 12
5 Śląsk Wrocław U19 8 12 5 +7 17
6 Jagiellonia U19 7 12 9 +3 11
7 Zagłębie Lubin U19 7 12 14 -2 12
8 Polonia Warszawa U19 7 11 10 +1 7
9 Lech Poznań U19 7 11 12 -1 9
10 Arka Gdynia U19 8 9 14 -5 6
11 Miedź Legnica U19 7 8 8 0 12
12 Górnik Zabrze U19 8 8 10 -2 8
13 Arkonia U19 8 8 11 -3 9
14 Korona Kielce U19 7 8 12 -4 8
15 Stal Rzeszów U19 8 8 14 -6 8
16 Escola Varsovia U19 7 3 11 -8 6
Central Youth League Poland. Central Youth League Predictions