Real Frontera vs Urena SC Statistics & Analysis

Real Frontera

Jul 25, 2026 - 19:30

1 1.43

5 1.17

xG Accuracy: 31%

Urena SC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Real Frontera Urena SC ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456953

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Urena SC win · Real Frontera 1–5 Urena SC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Real Frontera (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Real Frontera (1X2) by about 17.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Real Frontera (1X2)	41.4	24.3	+17.1
Draw (1X2)	29.4	27.2	+2.1
Urena SC (1X2)	29.3	48.5	-19.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.4	+2.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.6	-2.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.4% on Real Frontera (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.3%. The difference — about 17.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Real Frontera (1X2)	3.7	3.7
Draw (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Urena SC (1X2)	1.85	1.85
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Real Frontera vs Urena SC
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 19:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Real Frontera 1.43 — Urena SC 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	27	18	6	3	60
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	14	8	5	50
3	Urena SC	28	12	9	7	45
4	Yaracuyanos FC	27	11	7	9	40
5	Zamora FC B	27	11	7	9	40
6	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	9	7	12	34
7	Puerto Cabello II	28	8	7	13	31
8	Club Atletico Barinas	28	9	4	15	31
9	Real Frontera	28	3	3	22	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Atletico Barinas	28	49	59	-10	31
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	27	48	27	+21	50
3	Deportivo Lara	27	46	20	+26	60
4	Zamora FC B	27	42	36	+6	40
5	Urena SC	28	41	34	+7	45
6	Puerto Cabello II	28	36	40	-4	31
7	Yaracuyanos FC	27	34	27	+7	40
8	Atletico el Vigia FC	28	32	45	-13	34
9	Real Frontera	28	22	62	-40	12