Estrela U23 vs Sporting CP U23 Statistics & Analysis

Estrela U23

Sep 01, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.28

2 1.32

xG Accuracy: 77%

Sporting CP U23

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sporting CP U23 Sporting CP U23 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5502779

Closing Odds 2.89

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sporting CP U23 win · Estrela U23 1–2 Sporting CP U23

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Estrela U23 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Estrela U23 (1X2) by about 2.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Estrela U23 (1X2)	34.2	31.7	+2.5
Draw (1X2)	29.7	29.6	+0.0
Sporting CP U23 (1X2)	36.1	38.6	-2.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	46.8	+1.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	53.2	-1.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Estrela U23 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.7%. The difference — about 2.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Estrela U23 (1X2)	2.89	2.89
Draw (1X2)	3.09	3.09
Sporting CP U23 (1X2)	2.37	2.37
Over 2.5 goals	2.02	2.02
Under 2.5 goals	1.78	1.78

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Revelação U23
Fixture: Estrela U23 vs Sporting CP U23
Kickoff: 2026-09-01 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Estrela U23 1.28 — Sporting CP U23 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Revelação U23 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	7	4	3	0	15
2	Academico Viseu U23	7	4	2	1	14
3	Farense U23	7	3	2	2	11
4	Estoril U23	6	2	4	0	10
5	Sporting Braga U23	7	2	4	1	10
6	Benfica U23	7	3	1	3	10
7	Vizela U23	5	3	0	2	9
8	Rio Ave U23	5	2	2	1	8
9	Gil Vicente U23	7	2	2	3	8
10	Famalicão U23	7	2	2	3	8
11	Santa Clara U23	3	2	1	0	7
12	Moreirense U23	6	1	4	1	7
13	Felgueiras U23	5	2	1	2	7
14	União Leiria U23	6	2	1	3	7
15	Torreense U23	5	1	3	1	6
16	Leixões U23	6	1	2	3	5
17	Penafiel U23	6	0	5	1	5
18	Estrela U23	6	1	2	3	5
19	Portimonense U23	7	0	4	3	4
20	Marítimo U23	7	0	3	4	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	7	15	9	+6	15
2	Academico Viseu U23	7	14	10	+4	14
3	Estoril U23	6	13	10	+3	10
4	Famalicão U23	7	13	15	-2	8
5	Sporting Braga U23	7	11	9	+2	10
6	Farense U23	7	11	11	0	11
7	Benfica U23	7	10	9	+1	10
8	Leixões U23	6	10	10	0	5
9	Moreirense U23	6	9	8	+1	7
10	Gil Vicente U23	7	9	10	-1	8
11	Penafiel U23	6	9	10	-1	5
12	Felgueiras U23	5	7	6	+1	7
13	Torreense U23	5	7	9	-2	6
14	Vizela U23	5	6	4	+2	9
15	Rio Ave U23	5	6	4	+2	8
16	União Leiria U23	6	6	7	-1	7
17	Estrela U23	6	5	10	-5	5
18	Marítimo U23	7	5	12	-7	3
19	Portimonense U23	7	4	9	-5	4
20	Santa Clara U23	3	2	0	+2	7