Statistics / Football / Portugal. Liga Revelação U23 / Marítimo U23 vs Estrela U23

Marítimo U23 vs Estrela U23 Statistics & Analysis

Marítimo U23 Marítimo U23
Aug 25, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 49%
Estrela U23 Estrela U23
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Estrela U23 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 19, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4551312

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Marítimo U23 0–0 Estrela U23
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Estrela U23 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Estrela U23 (1X2) by about 2.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Marítimo U23 (1X2) 34.7 38.4 -3.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 28.2 +1.5
Estrela U23 (1X2) 35.6 33.4 +2.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Estrela U23 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.4%. The difference — about 2.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: SBO

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Marítimo U23 (1X2) 2.21 2.21 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Estrela U23 (1X2) 2.54 2.54 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Revelação U23
  • Fixture: Marítimo U23 vs Estrela U23
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-25 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Marítimo U23 1.29 — Estrela U23 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +4.0 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Revelação U23 Liga Revelação U23 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sporting CP U23 7 4 3 0 15
2 Academico Viseu U23 7 4 2 1 14
3 Farense U23 7 3 2 2 11
4 Estoril U23 6 2 4 0 10
5 Sporting Braga U23 7 2 4 1 10
6 Benfica U23 7 3 1 3 10
7 Vizela U23 5 3 0 2 9
8 Rio Ave U23 5 2 2 1 8
9 Gil Vicente U23 7 2 2 3 8
10 Famalicão U23 7 2 2 3 8
11 Santa Clara U23 3 2 1 0 7
12 Moreirense U23 6 1 4 1 7
13 Felgueiras U23 5 2 1 2 7
14 União Leiria U23 6 2 1 3 7
15 Torreense U23 5 1 3 1 6
16 Leixões U23 6 1 2 3 5
17 Penafiel U23 6 0 5 1 5
18 Estrela U23 6 1 2 3 5
19 Portimonense U23 7 0 4 3 4
20 Marítimo U23 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting CP U23 7 15 9 +6 15
2 Academico Viseu U23 7 14 10 +4 14
3 Estoril U23 6 13 10 +3 10
4 Famalicão U23 7 13 15 -2 8
5 Sporting Braga U23 7 11 9 +2 10
6 Farense U23 7 11 11 0 11
7 Benfica U23 7 10 9 +1 10
8 Leixões U23 6 10 10 0 5
9 Moreirense U23 6 9 8 +1 7
10 Gil Vicente U23 7 9 10 -1 8
11 Penafiel U23 6 9 10 -1 5
12 Felgueiras U23 5 7 6 +1 7
13 Torreense U23 5 7 9 -2 6
14 Vizela U23 5 6 4 +2 9
15 Rio Ave U23 5 6 4 +2 8
16 União Leiria U23 6 6 7 -1 7
17 Estrela U23 6 5 10 -5 5
18 Marítimo U23 7 5 12 -7 3
19 Portimonense U23 7 4 9 -5 4
20 Santa Clara U23 3 2 0 +2 7
Liga Revelação U23 Portugal. Liga Revelação U23 Predictions