Marítimo U23 vs Benfica U23 Statistics & Analysis

Marítimo U23

Sep 25, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.20

3 1.40

xG Accuracy: 61%

Benfica U23

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9561772

Closing Odds 1.53

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Benfica U23 win · Marítimo U23 1–3 Benfica U23

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.28 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Marítimo U23 (1X2)	30.6	18.7	+11.9
Draw (1X2)	29.5	21.1	+8.3
Benfica U23 (1X2)	40.0	60.2	-20.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.7	-14.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	37.3	+14.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.3%. The difference — about 14.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Marítimo U23 (1X2)	4.81	4.93	-0.2
Draw (1X2)	4.22	4.36	-0.5
Benfica U23 (1X2)	1.53	1.53	+0.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.51	1.49	+1.3
Under 2.5 goals	2.4	2.5	-1.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Revelação U23
Fixture: Marítimo U23 vs Benfica U23
Kickoff: 2026-09-25 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
xG (showing): Marítimo U23 1.2 — Benfica U23 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Marítimo U23 & Benfica U23!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Liga Revelação U23 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	7	4	3	0	15
2	Academico Viseu U23	7	4	2	1	14
3	Farense U23	7	3	2	2	11
4	Estoril U23	6	2	4	0	10
5	Sporting Braga U23	7	2	4	1	10
6	Benfica U23	7	3	1	3	10
7	Vizela U23	5	3	0	2	9
8	Rio Ave U23	5	2	2	1	8
9	Gil Vicente U23	7	2	2	3	8
10	Famalicão U23	7	2	2	3	8
11	Santa Clara U23	3	2	1	0	7
12	Moreirense U23	6	1	4	1	7
13	Felgueiras U23	5	2	1	2	7
14	União Leiria U23	6	2	1	3	7
15	Torreense U23	5	1	3	1	6
16	Leixões U23	6	1	2	3	5
17	Penafiel U23	6	0	5	1	5
18	Estrela U23	6	1	2	3	5
19	Portimonense U23	7	0	4	3	4
20	Marítimo U23	7	0	3	4	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	7	15	9	+6	15
2	Academico Viseu U23	7	14	10	+4	14
3	Estoril U23	6	13	10	+3	10
4	Famalicão U23	7	13	15	-2	8
5	Sporting Braga U23	7	11	9	+2	10
6	Farense U23	7	11	11	0	11
7	Benfica U23	7	10	9	+1	10
8	Leixões U23	6	10	10	0	5
9	Moreirense U23	6	9	8	+1	7
10	Gil Vicente U23	7	9	10	-1	8
11	Penafiel U23	6	9	10	-1	5
12	Felgueiras U23	5	7	6	+1	7
13	Torreense U23	5	7	9	-2	6
14	Vizela U23	5	6	4	+2	9
15	Rio Ave U23	5	6	4	+2	8
16	União Leiria U23	6	6	7	-1	7
17	Estrela U23	6	5	10	-5	5
18	Marítimo U23	7	5	12	-7	3
19	Portimonense U23	7	4	9	-5	4
20	Santa Clara U23	3	2	0	+2	7