Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani Statistics & Analysis

Ayutthaya FC

Sep 18, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 78%

Uthai Thani

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Uthai Thani Uthai Thani ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8194275

Closing Odds 3.29

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Uthai Thani win · Ayutthaya FC 1–2 Uthai Thani

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Uthai Thani (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Uthai Thani (1X2) by about 8.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ayutthaya FC (1X2)	33.4	39.3	-6.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	32.5	-2.9
Uthai Thani (1X2)	37.0	28.2	+8.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.3	-2.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	49.7	+2.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Uthai Thani (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.2%. The difference — about 8.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ayutthaya FC (1X2)	2.36	2.36
Draw (1X2)	2.86	2.86
Uthai Thani (1X2)	3.29	3.29
Over 2.5 goals	1.89	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	1.91

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Thai League 1
Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Ayutthaya FC 1.26 — Uthai Thani 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Buriram United	3	2	1	0	7
2	Rayong FC	3	2	1	0	7
3	Uthai Thani	3	2	0	1	6
4	Prachuap	3	2	0	1	6
5	Bangkok United	3	2	0	1	6
6	Port FC	3	2	0	1	6
7	Ayutthaya FC	3	2	0	1	6
8	Bangkok Glass	3	1	1	1	4
9	Ratchaburi	3	1	1	1	4
10	Chiangrai United	3	1	1	1	4
11	Pattani	3	1	1	1	4
12	Sukhothai FC	3	1	0	2	3
13	Sisaket United	3	1	0	2	3
14	Rasi Salai United	3	0	1	2	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	0	1	2	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Uthai Thani	3	7	4	+3	6
2	Bangkok United	3	6	4	+2	6
3	Buriram United	3	5	2	+3	7
4	Rayong FC	3	5	3	+2	7
5	Port FC	3	5	4	+1	6
6	Bangkok Glass	3	5	5	0	4
7	Prachuap	3	4	1	+3	6
8	Ayutthaya FC	3	4	3	+1	6
9	Rasi Salai United	3	4	6	-2	1
10	Ratchaburi	3	3	3	0	4
11	Sukhothai FC	3	3	5	-2	3
12	Lamphun Warrior	3	3	7	-4	1
13	Chiangrai United	3	2	2	0	4
14	Pattani	3	2	4	-2	4
15	Sisaket United	3	2	4	-2	3
16	Chonburi FC	3	2	5	-3	0