Statistics / Football / Thailand. Thai League 1 / Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United

Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United Statistics & Analysis

Ratchaburi Ratchaburi
Sep 11, 2026 - 12:00
1 0.99
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 72%
Bangkok United Bangkok United
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bangkok United Ratchaburi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7021968

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ratchaburi win · Ratchaburi 1–0 Bangkok United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bangkok United (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ratchaburi (1X2) 28.3 32.7 -4.4
Draw (1X2) 32.3 31.1 +1.2
Bangkok United (1X2) 39.4 36.1 +3.2
Over 2.5 goals 37.7 52.5 -14.8
Under 2.5 goals 62.3 47.5 +14.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 62.3% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 47.5%. The difference — about 14.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ratchaburi (1X2) 2.87 2.87 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Bangkok United (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.02 2.02 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Thai League 1
  • Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.3% · Draw 32.3% · Away 39.4%
  • xG (showing): Ratchaburi 0.99 — Bangkok United 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.2)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 54.2% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +11.1 pts · Est. EV: +23.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.8% · No 54.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Ratchaburi & Bangkok United!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Thai League 1 Thai League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Buriram United 3 2 1 0 7
2 Rayong FC 3 2 1 0 7
3 Uthai Thani 3 2 0 1 6
4 Prachuap 3 2 0 1 6
5 Bangkok United 3 2 0 1 6
6 Port FC 3 2 0 1 6
7 Ayutthaya FC 3 2 0 1 6
8 Bangkok Glass 3 1 1 1 4
9 Ratchaburi 3 1 1 1 4
10 Chiangrai United 3 1 1 1 4
11 Pattani 3 1 1 1 4
12 Sukhothai FC 3 1 0 2 3
13 Sisaket United 3 1 0 2 3
14 Rasi Salai United 3 0 1 2 1
15 Lamphun Warrior 3 0 1 2 1
16 Chonburi FC 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Uthai Thani 3 7 4 +3 6
2 Bangkok United 3 6 4 +2 6
3 Buriram United 3 5 2 +3 7
4 Rayong FC 3 5 3 +2 7
5 Port FC 3 5 4 +1 6
6 Bangkok Glass 3 5 5 0 4
7 Prachuap 3 4 1 +3 6
8 Ayutthaya FC 3 4 3 +1 6
9 Rasi Salai United 3 4 6 -2 1
10 Ratchaburi 3 3 3 0 4
11 Sukhothai FC 3 3 5 -2 3
12 Lamphun Warrior 3 3 7 -4 1
13 Chiangrai United 3 2 2 0 4
14 Pattani 3 2 4 -2 4
15 Sisaket United 3 2 4 -2 3
16 Chonburi FC 3 2 5 -3 0