Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani Statistics & Analysis

Lamphun Warrior

Sep 06, 2026 - 11:30

1 1.10

4 0.84

xG Accuracy: 41%

Uthai Thani

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lamphun Warrior Uthai Thani ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6326621

Closing Odds 2.4

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Uthai Thani win · Lamphun Warrior 1–4 Uthai Thani

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lamphun Warrior (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Lamphun Warrior (1X2)	39.6	38.6	+1.0
Draw (1X2)	34.5	35.2	-0.8
Uthai Thani (1X2)	25.9	26.1	-0.2
Over 2.5 goals	30.7	44.2	-13.5
Under 2.5 goals	69.3	55.8	+13.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 69.3% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 55.8%. The difference — about 13.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Lamphun Warrior (1X2)	2.4	2.4
Draw (1X2)	2.63	2.63
Uthai Thani (1X2)	3.55	3.55
Over 2.5 goals	2.13	2.13
Under 2.5 goals	1.69	1.69

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Thai League 1
Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.6% · Draw 34.5% · Away 25.9%
xG (showing): Lamphun Warrior 1.1 — Uthai Thani 0.84 (total xG ≈ 1.94)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 69.3% · Implied: 58.1% · Probability edge: +11.2 pts · Est. EV: +12.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 39.6% · No 60.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Buriram United	3	2	1	0	7
2	Rayong FC	3	2	1	0	7
3	Uthai Thani	3	2	0	1	6
4	Prachuap	3	2	0	1	6
5	Bangkok United	3	2	0	1	6
6	Port FC	3	2	0	1	6
7	Ayutthaya FC	3	2	0	1	6
8	Bangkok Glass	3	1	1	1	4
9	Ratchaburi	3	1	1	1	4
10	Chiangrai United	3	1	1	1	4
11	Pattani	3	1	1	1	4
12	Sukhothai FC	3	1	0	2	3
13	Sisaket United	3	1	0	2	3
14	Rasi Salai United	3	0	1	2	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	0	1	2	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Uthai Thani	3	7	4	+3	6
2	Bangkok United	3	6	4	+2	6
3	Buriram United	3	5	2	+3	7
4	Rayong FC	3	5	3	+2	7
5	Port FC	3	5	4	+1	6
6	Bangkok Glass	3	5	5	0	4
7	Prachuap	3	4	1	+3	6
8	Ayutthaya FC	3	4	3	+1	6
9	Rasi Salai United	3	4	6	-2	1
10	Ratchaburi	3	3	3	0	4
11	Sukhothai FC	3	3	5	-2	3
12	Lamphun Warrior	3	3	7	-4	1
13	Chiangrai United	3	2	2	0	4
14	Pattani	3	2	4	-2	4
15	Sisaket United	3	2	4	-2	3
16	Chonburi FC	3	2	5	-3	0